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Events
GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Ligue 1 Champion

Ligue 1 Champion
Vol

PM $845.2K · K 87.7K contracts

|
Events

5

|
Markets

90

Polymarket vs Kalshi

Snapshot from

As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, PSG is priced at 88.5% on Polymarket and 88% on Kalshi.

Outcome (Yes price)PolymarketKalshiGap
PSGSame question, fine print differs88.5%88%0.5 pts
TroyesSame question, fine print differs<0.1%4.5%4.5 pts
MonacoSame question, fine print differs2.6%2.5%0.1 pts
LilleSame question, fine print differs2.5%2%0.5 pts
RennesSame question, fine print differs0.9%2.5%1.7 pts
LyonSame question, fine print differs1.5%2%0.5 pts
LensSame question, fine print differs1.1%1.5%0.4 pts
MarseilleSame question, fine print differs1.3%1%0.3 pts

Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $845.2K · K 87.7K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

90

Saved contracts

17

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

2026-27 Season If X is the 2026-2027 Ligue 1 champion, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.

This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.

Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T06:00:05.830Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Kalshi event "Ligue 1 Champion" covers the 2026-27 season. Its rule states: "If X is the 2026-2027 Ligue 1 champion, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Each team-specific market asks whether that team will win, so a Yes outcome on one contract is not a comparison with the others in the same event. The source also says the market "will close and expire after a title holder is declared." [1] Closing and resolution therefore depend on that declaration, not on a fixed date alone.

Each listed market shows an end date of 2027-06-13T02:00:00.000Z. [1] The source excerpt separately states "Listed end time: not supplied." [1] Treat the end date in the market data as a platform field, and note that the excerpt does not confirm it as an announced event date.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-01T06:00:05.830Z, and the material was retrieved at 2026-11-01T06:52:31.203Z. [1] These are snapshots from that window, not current or executable quotes.

The sample is partial. The saved event has 18 markets, and 12 are included. [1] The included markets were chosen by highest finite Yes price, so the omitted six are not shown and should not be assumed to have lower prices. Within the sample, PSG has the highest listed Yes price at 0.865, with Monaco at 0.065 and Stade Rennes at 0.025. [1] Several teams sit at 0.02 or below, and several at 0.005. [1] Because the sample is cut by price rank, these figures show only the included contracts.

The Yes and No prices for each market sum to 1.00 in the supplied data. [1] Volume and trader counts are not included in this snapshot, so the prices say nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.

What remains uncertain

The snapshot does not explain why any price is where it is. It does not show spreads, order book depth, or whether a trade could be made at these levels. Prices are not verified probabilities of any team winning. The excerpt also does not state a listed end time, so the closing schedule beyond the supplied date field is unknown. Kalshi's disclaimer notes that it "is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League." [1] Differences in prices across platforms or events should not be read as arbitrage without matching contract terms and current quotes.

References

  1. Kalshi: Ligue 1 Champion. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T06:00:05.830Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTC

This saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.

Overview

PredictPedia's Ligue 1 Champion contract is tied to the 2026-27 edition of France's top professional football league. Ligue 1, formerly known as Division 1 from 1933 to 2002, is the highest level of the French football league system [3]. It is administered by the Ligue de Football Professionnel, contested by 18 clubs, and operates on a system of promotion and relegation with Ligue 2 [3]. Seasons run from August to May [3]. The French football champions are the winners of this highest league, and the professional championship has been contested through Ligue 1 since the National Council of the French Football Federation voted in support of professionalism in 1930 [2]. The contract concerns only the title for the 2026-27 season, not the wider league table or any other competition. The market is listed on Kalshi under the event title Ligue 1 Champion, with the 2026-27 Season named in the contract [1]. The provider states that Kalshi is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or officially connected to the governing league, and that trademarks belong to their respective owners [1].

Historical Context

The French football champions are the winners of the highest league of football in France, Ligue 1 [2]. Professional football in France was placed on a formal footing when the National Council of the French Football Federation voted in support of professionalism in 1930, after which the professional championship has been contested through Ligue 1, which was formerly known as Division 1 from 1933 to 2002 [2].

Why It Matters

The contract measures a single outcome: whether a named club wins the 2026-27 Ligue 1 title. The contract states that if X is the 2026-2027 Ligue 1 champion, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Each club-specific market in the saved event asks whether that club will win the title, so each contract resolves independently based on the declared champion [1]. Because the title is decided at the end of a season that runs from August to May [3], the contract's resolution depends on the league's final outcome rather than on any interim standings. The prices shown for each club are snapshots of Yes and No contracts at a moment in time. They are not executable quotes and not verified probabilities. The saved event includes 18 markets in total, and 12 are included in the sample, selected by Yes price. The omitted markets are not shown and should not be read as having any particular price.

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

What outcome makes a Ligue 1 Champion market resolve to Yes?

The market resolves to Yes if the club named in the contract is the 2026-2027 Ligue 1 champion [1].

When does the market close?

The contract states that the market will close and expire after a title holder is declared [1]. The provider listing does not supply an end time [1]. The saved market records include an end date of June 13, 2027, but that is a contract field and not an announced date for when the title will be decided.

Does a market price show the true chance that a club wins?

No. The prices are snapshots of contract prices. They are not executable quotes and are not verified probabilities, so they should not be read as confirmed chances of winning the title.

Was this helpful?
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiSports
UEFA Champions League: League Phase Last Place

UEFA Champions League: League Phase Last Place

PM $25.75M · K 7.4K contracts

Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

Kalshi: Will Arsenal finish in last place in the EPL 2026-27 season?

Related contracts

PM Yes 76%Rules differK Yes 41.5%

Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

Kalshi: Will Leeds United finish in last place in the EPL 2026-27 season?

Related contracts

PM Yes <0.1%Rules differK Yes 44%

Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

Kalshi: Will Newcastle United finish in last place in the EPL 2026-27 season?

Related contracts

PM Yes <0.1%Rules differK Yes 44%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

50 saved comparisonsNext deadline Feb 28, 2027 UTC
KalshiSports
Serie A Last Place Finisher

Serie A Last Place Finisher

K 529.9 contracts
Will Torino finish in last place in the Serie A 2026-27 season?Yes 24%
Will Milan finish in last place in the Serie A 2026-27 season?Yes 23%
Will Parma Calcio finish in last place in the Serie A 2026-27 season?Yes 16.5%
+17 moreNext deadline Jun 14, 2027 UTC
KalshiSports
Bundesliga Last Place Finisher

Bundesliga Last Place Finisher

K 59.72 contracts
Will M´gladbach finish in last place in the Bundesliga 2026-27 season?Yes 35.5%
Will Union Berlin finish in last place in the Bundesliga 2026-27 season?Yes 24.5%
Will Elversberg finish in last place in the Bundesliga 2026-27 season?Yes 24.5%
+15 moreNext deadline Jun 6, 2027 UTC
PolymarketSports
Ligue 1: 3rd Place Finish 2026-27

Ligue 1: 3rd Place Finish 2026-27

PM $15
Will Rennes finish 3rd in the 2026-27 Ligue 1?Yes 47%
Will Lyon finish 3rd in the 2026-27 Ligue 1?Yes 46%
Will Lille finish 3rd in the 2026-27 Ligue 1?Yes 45%
+15 moreNext deadline Jul 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiSports
Ligue 1: Team Points

Ligue 1: Team Points

K 93.94 contracts
Will PSG finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 85+ points?Yes 56%
Will Stade Rennes finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 65+ points?Yes 54.5%
Will Marseille finish the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season with 65+ points?Yes 54.5%
+69 moreNext deadline Jun 13, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiSports
Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers

Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers

PM $12.1K · K 457.81 contracts

Will Paris Saint-Germain finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?

Kalshi: Will PSG finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 95.3%Rules differK Yes 50%

Will Monaco finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?

Kalshi: Will Monaco finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 70%Rules differK Yes 45%

Will Paris FC finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?

Kalshi: Will Paris FC finish in the top 4 in the Ligue 1 season?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 53.5%Rules differK Yes 69.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

18 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jun 13, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

1

Same-question pairs

17

Largest saved gap: 4.5 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.