
Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers
PM $12.1K · K 457.81 contracts
2
36
Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers

PM $12.1K · K 457.81 contracts
2
36
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, PSG is priced at 95.3% on Polymarket and 50% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSGSame question, fine print differs | 95.3% | 50% | 45.3 pts |
| MonacoSame question, fine print differs | 70% | 45% | 25.0 pts |
| Paris FCSame question, fine print differs | 53.5% | 69.5% | 16.0 pts |
| RennesSame question, fine print differs | 36% | 65% | 29.0 pts |
| NiceSame question, fine print differs | 9.2% | 51% | 41.8 pts |
| AngersSame question, fine print differs | 15.6% | 50% | 34.5 pts |
| BrestSame question, fine print differs | 7% | 50% | 43.0 pts |
| Le HavreSame question, fine print differs | 0.3% | 50% | 49.7 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $12.1K · K 457.81 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
36
Saved contracts
18
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Top 4 2026-27 Season If X is a top 4 finisher in the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-04T21:00:06.248Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event is "Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers" on Kalshi. Its excerpt states: "If X is a top 4 finisher in the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Each listed market asks about one club, and the excerpt adds: "This market will close and expire early if the event occurs." [1] The source also reports the provider status as active and says "Listed end time: not supplied." [1] The market records carry an endDate of 2027-06-13T02:00:00.000Z [1], but the evidence does not explain that field. It should not be read as an announced season finish date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-04T21:00:06.248Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-05T02:07:54.514Z [1]. These figures are snapshots from that period, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Among the included contracts, PSG's Yes price is 0.95 [1], Monaco's is 0.515 [1], and Stade Brest 29's is 0.045 [1]. Lille and Paris FC are each listed at 0.445 [1]. Each row is a separate yes/no contract, so the prices should be read one club at a time rather than combined into a single ranking or average.
The sample is partial. The saved event contains 18 markets, and 12 are included. Selection was based on the highest finite Yes price, then volume [1]. The six omitted markets are not shown, so nothing can be concluded about their prices, and a lower or higher price for them should not be assumed. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or of the number of traders, and the evidence does not show how many participants hold any position.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price sits where it does, and it contains no news, team form, or standings. It does not confirm the season's current status beyond the observed snapshot. Because the listed end time is not supplied, the closing and resolution timing cannot be confirmed from this source. Contracts on other platforms or events may use different wording, so comparisons should be limited to contracts with matching rules. A price difference between separate contracts is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Kalshi: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers. Provider data observed 2026-11-04T21:00:06.248Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 5, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia topic covers contracts on whether a specific Ligue 1 club will finish in the top four of the 2026-27 season's final standings. Kalshi lists the contracts under the event "Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers" for the 2026-27 season [1]. Polymarket lists them under "Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)" [2]. Each contract asks about one named club and has Yes and No outcomes. For example, one contract asks whether Paris Saint-Germain will finish in the top four [1][2]. The contracts depend on the final table of the league season, not on any single match or interim position. Kalshi's rule is short: if the named club is a top four finisher in the 2026-27 season, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Polymarket's rules are more detailed and cover impossibility, ties, cancellation and resolution sources [2]. Because the wording differs, the two platforms' contracts for the same club should be read separately.
Historical Context
Ligue 1 is France's premier football competition [3][4]. The 2025-26 season was the 88th in the competition's history. It began on 15 August 2025 and concluded on 17 May 2026 [4]. The 2026-27 season is the 89th. It began on 21 August 2026 and is set to conclude on 29 May 2027 [3]. The wording "set to conclude" describes a scheduled end date and does not confirm that the season has finished. The supplied sources do not describe the 2026-27 standings, so this article does not state any current table position.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a club's place in the final 2026-27 Ligue 1 standings falls within positions one through four. On Kalshi, a club that is a top four finisher resolves the market to Yes, and the market closes and expires early if that event occurs [1]. On Polymarket, a Yes resolution requires finishing in positions one through four of the final standings, and a No resolution applies if it becomes impossible for the club to reach the top four, for example if it is mathematically unable to gather enough points [2]. The Polymarket rules also state that a tie for the last top four place is decided by the clubs officially recognized by the LFP as finishing in the top four [2]. The Polymarket listed end time is 13 June 2027 at 03:59 UTC [2]. That date is part of the contract rules. It is not an announced event date. Under the same rules, if the season is cancelled, or postponed after 12 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or no final standings are declared in that window, the market resolves to No [2]. Each platform's event contains 18 markets, and this view covers 12 of them, so the examples here are a subset of the full field on each platform [1][2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-08 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome mean on these contracts?
On Kalshi, a Yes outcome means the named club is a top four finisher in the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season [1]. On Polymarket, Yes means the club finishes in positions one through four of the final standings [2].
What happens if two clubs tie for the last top four place?
The Polymarket contract resolves the tie based on the clubs officially recognized by the LFP as finishing in the top four of the final standings [2].
What happens if the season is cancelled or postponed?
Under the Polymarket rules, the market resolves to No if the 2026-27 season is cancelled, if it is postponed after 12 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or if no final standings are declared within that timeframe [2].
Why might the Kalshi and Polymarket versions of the same club's contract differ?
The platforms word their rules differently. Polymarket specifies how mathematical impossibility, ties, cancellation and resolution sources are handled [2], while Kalshi's listed rule is shorter and states that the market closes and expires early if the event occurs [1]. A contract on one platform should be judged by its own rules.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Largest saved gap: 49.7 percentage points.
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