Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

October Unemployment Rate

Name: October Unemployment Rate
End: 2026-11-06T13:30:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.15K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

October Unemployment Rate

Vol

$5.15K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.15K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.15K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Poly	37%
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	Poly	29%
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	Poly	25%
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?	Poly	9%
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?	Poly	5%
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%?	Poly	1%
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?	Poly	1%
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?	Poly	1%
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.8%?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

37%

Top Probability

$5.15K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the m

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** October Unemployment Rate
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 6, 2026 (26 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the m

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026.

The resolution sour"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.43)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $263
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $242
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $278
  DATA: [Yes: 9.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $837
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $728
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $729
  DATA: [Yes: 5.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $237
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $227
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy