This PredictPedia contract concerns the margin of victory in the 2026 KS-04 House election. The contract rules state that the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. That date comes from the contract rules and is not an announced event date. The contract resolves according to the gap between the top two candidates in the specified election [1]. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the measure is an absolute difference, it does not indicate which party finished ahead. Each bracket is a range of margins, and the rules specify how boundary values are handled. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the contract resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The rules also address who counts as a contestant. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options. Independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the party's replacement nominee [1]. The contract also includes tie rules. A tie between two listed candidates resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. A tie between two or more unlisted candidates resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution depends on the official count. The primary resolution source is the official result published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount is started before the total becomes official, the market stays open until the recount finishes and the vote is certified [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the contract resolves to "Other" [1]. The saved event includes eight contracts. These cover several margin brackets for the Republican candidate, a bracket for a 30 percent or more Republican margin, and a contract on whether the Democratic candidate wins [1]. The saved set includes every market recorded for this event, so the sample is complete for that event. It does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed.

Historical Context

The supplied encyclopedia entries describe a different race. One entry covers the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election, held on November 6, 2018, to elect the state's governor [2]. Another covers the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, with primaries held on August 4, 2026. That entry notes that incumbent Democratic governor Laura Kelly is term-limited [3]. These entries do not describe the KS-04 House race, its nominees, or its margin, so they provide only general state election background and do not establish the current status of the KS-04 contest.

Frequently Asked Questions