KS-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $16.2K
1
10
KS-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $16.2K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 6-9% at 21.2%.
Polymarket
- Republican 6-9%21.2%
- Republican 12-15%20.5%
- Republican 9-12%18%
- Republican 3-6%13.5%
- Republican 0-3%13.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $16.2K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 KS-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 KS-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract tracks the margin of victory in the 2026 KS-02 House election. Under the rules, the margin is "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. The Democratic and Republican nominees are the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," and "Independent candidates will not represent options for either party" [1]. If a nominee is replaced before election day, "the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party" [1].
Boundary and tie rules matter for reading brackets. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Ties follow separate rules, and if "two or more unlisted candidates" tie, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Timing also differs from the vote itself. The source says the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. Resolution uses "the official vote count once the count has been made official," and if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation was taken at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:00:44.535Z [1]. These are past values, not live quotes. The sample includes 10 markets from this event, with no partial sampling reported [1]. Those 10 are the saved markets for this event only.
In this snapshot, the highest Yes price is 0.19 for the Republican 12% to 15% bracket. The next highest are 0.175 for the Republican 3% to 6% and 9% to 12% brackets. The Democratic 0% to 3% bracket has the lowest Yes price at 0.0375. Yes prices are not verified probabilities, and they are not executable quotes. Because the sample is limited to these saved markets, the lower prices do not show that any unlisted outcome is less likely.
Volume is not used here because the evidence does not provide volume figures for these markets.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are. It also does not show trader counts, recent reporting, or any change since the observation. The sampleWarning states that the listed markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
Only one provider is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Differences in wording, such as "3% or more" versus bracketed ranges, should be checked against the contract text before comparing outcomes.
References
- Polymarket: KS-02 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract is tied to the 2026 U.S. House election in Kansas's 2nd congressional district (KS-02). It resolves according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The contract rules state that the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. That date comes from the rules' description of the election and is not a separate announcement of an event. The contract's price snapshots are sampled from the event's bracket markets. Each bracket asks whether a named party's nominee will win by a stated margin range, and the outcome labels are Yes and No. A snapshot shows what the provider reported at one moment. It is not an executable quote, a verified probability, or a measure of how many people traded. The rules define the two options as the Democratic and Republican Party nominees. Independent candidates do not count as either option [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. Candidate names appear in the contract for convenience only, so the party nominee is what matters for resolution. Resolution depends on the official vote count once it has been made official, and the primary source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election. Credible reporting may also be used if there is an overwhelming consensus [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified [1]. The contract includes several edge-case rules. If a reported margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If two or more candidates tie for the most votes, the tie-breaking rules use ballot-listed last names in alphabetical order, and the tied result resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the affected candidate. If the top two finishers are both unlisted candidates, the market resolves to Other [1]. The listed end time for the event is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
Historical Context
The same election cycle includes a Kansas gubernatorial race scheduled for November 3, 2026, which Wikipedia describes as an election to choose the next governor of Kansas. Its primary elections took place on August 4, 2026, and the incumbent Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is term-limited [2]. That is a separate statewide contest and is not the House race that this KS-02 contract measures. For earlier background, Wikipedia records that the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor [3]. The supplied sources do not provide historical results for the KS-02 House district, so this section does not describe past House margins.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisively the leading candidate is expected to win, rather than simply which party wins. Each bracket covers a specific range of percentage-point margins between the top two finishers, so traders can express views about a narrow race, a wider result, or a result where a party wins by a large amount. Because the margin is calculated from valid votes, the rules tie the outcome to a defined counting method rather than to raw ballot totals [1]. The rules also explain the conditions under which a result is considered final. Official certification and possible recounts determine when the market resolves, and the June 30, 2027 deadline defines when an unresolved count becomes Other [1]. Understanding these rules matters because a contract can remain open for a long time if counting or recounting is delayed.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this contract measure which party wins the House seat?
Not directly. The contract resolves to a margin bracket based on the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes for the top two candidates, and the bracket options are labeled by party with a stated margin range [1].
Do independent candidates count in the Democratic or Republican options?
No. The rules state that independent candidates will not represent options for either party [1].
What happens if a nominee is replaced before election day?
The contract name is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of that party [1].
What happens if the result falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
What happens if results are not known by June 30, 2027?
The rules state that the market resolves to Other if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
Is the Kansas governor race the same contract?
No. The Kansas gubernatorial election is a separate statewide race scheduled for the same general election date, and the sources describe it separately from the KS-02 House margin contract [2][1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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