$259.73K
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$259.73K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
GTA VI If the price of the base game of Grand Theft Auto VI for PS5 is above X dollars USD, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after the base game's price is announced. This market will close and expire after the base game's price is announced.
Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certainty that the base price of Grand Theft Auto VI for PS5 will exceed $60 USD. The leading contract on Kalshi, "More than $60," is trading at 97 cents, implying a 97% probability. This overwhelming confidence suggests traders view a price hike as virtually guaranteed, with only a 3% chance the game launches at the traditional $60 standard.
Two primary industry trends are fueling this market consensus. First, the standard price for AAA games has shifted to $70, a move pioneered by Sony and Microsoft for their first-party titles and widely adopted by third-party publishers like Take-Two Interactive, Rockstar Games' parent company. Major releases like Call of Duty: Modern Warfare III and Marvel's Spider-Man 2 have already launched at this price point. Second, the immense scale and development cost of GTA VI, coupled with its status as one of the most anticipated entertainment products in history, gives Rockstar significant pricing power. The market is effectively betting that consumer demand is inelastic enough to support the new industry standard.
The primary catalyst that will resolve this market is the official price announcement from Rockstar Games. While the 97% probability indicates extreme confidence, a slight possibility remains for a disruptive pricing strategy. For instance, Rockstar could theoretically launch a standard edition at $60 while offering a more expensive bundled edition, though this is considered unlikely. A more plausible, but still low-probability, scenario is a surprise price point above $70, which would validate the current market pricing but at an even higher threshold. The odds are stable until an official announcement, which is expected well ahead of the game's Fall 2025 launch window.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the retail price of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) for the PlayStation 5 console. Specifically, it asks whether the base game's price will exceed a predetermined threshold in US dollars. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if the announced price is above that threshold, and it will close immediately upon the official price announcement. This topic sits at the intersection of entertainment economics, consumer expectations, and industry pricing trends, generating significant interest from gamers, investors, and market analysts alike. The anticipation for GTA VI, the next installment in Rockstar Games' record-breaking franchise, makes its pricing a subject of intense speculation and debate. Recent industry shifts toward higher price points for major AAA titles, coupled with rising development costs and inflation, have created uncertainty about whether the traditional $60-$70 standard for base games will hold. People are interested in this topic not only for personal budgeting but also as a bellwether for the broader video game industry's pricing strategy. The outcome will signal how publishers value their most premium content and how much consumers are willing to pay for a flagship entertainment product in the current economic climate.
The retail price of video games has evolved significantly over decades. In the 1990s and early 2000s, cartridge-based games often retailed for $49.99 to $59.99. With the advent of disc-based media in the PS2 and Xbox era, the standard price for a new AAA title settled at $59.99 for many years. This price point held remarkably steady across the PS3 and Xbox 360 generation and into the early years of the PS4 and Xbox One. A major shift occurred in August 2020 when Take-Two Interactive's NBA 2K21 was announced at $69.99 for PS5 and Xbox Series X/S versions, breaking the long-standing $60 ceiling. Sony followed suit shortly after, pricing its major first-party PS5 titles like Demon's Souls and Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales at $69.99. This established a new baseline for the current console generation. Historically, Grand Theft Auto titles have launched at the prevailing standard price. GTA IV launched at $59.99 in 2008, and GTA V launched at $59.99 in 2013 for PS3 and Xbox 360. The precedent suggests Rockstar has not used its market dominance to launch at a premium above the industry standard, but the entire standard itself has now risen.
The pricing of GTA VI matters because it will test the upper limits of consumer acceptance for a single-piece entertainment product. As one of the most anticipated media releases of the decade, its price point will send a powerful signal to the entire industry. If it launches at or above $79.99, it could normalize a new, higher tier for 'premium' AAA games, affecting future titles from other publishers and potentially widening the perceived value gap between large and mid-sized studios. This has direct economic implications for gamers' disposable income and for the revenue projections of publishers and platform holders. A higher price could also intensify debates about digital ownership, preservation, and the value proposition compared to subscription services like Xbox Game Pass or PlayStation Plus. The decision will be analyzed by investors as a key indicator of Take-Two's confidence in its product and its strategy for monetizing its most valuable intellectual property in an era of live service games and microtransactions.
As of late 2024, Rockstar Games has officially announced Grand Theft Auto VI with a trailer confirming a 2025 release window, but the company has not announced a specific launch date or a retail price. The gaming community and analysts are actively speculating based on industry trends. Several major third-party publishers, including Activision with *Call of Duty* and Electronic Arts with *EA Sports FC*, have adhered to the $69.99 standard for their flagship annual releases on PS5. There is no confirmed leak or official statement suggesting GTA VI's price. The market remains in a state of anticipation, awaiting the formal price announcement which will trigger the resolution of this prediction market.
The price has not been officially announced. Based on current industry standards, analysts widely expect the base game to cost $69.99 USD, but a higher price of $79.99 or more is possible given the game's anticipated scale and development costs.
The price will likely be announced closer to the game's release in 2025, possibly during a formal marketing event or when pre-orders go live. Rockstar typically reveals such details months, not years, in advance of launch.
It is extremely likely. Previous Rockstar titles have launched with multiple editions. Expect a standard edition and at least one premium or collector's edition that includes in-game currency, bonus content, and physical items at a higher price point, potentially exceeding $100.
Primary reasons include skyrocketing development costs due to higher-fidelity graphics and larger game worlds, years of general inflation, and the industry's move to establish $69.99 as the new standard for current-generation console games.
Virtually no. Rockstar's biggest titles are never included in subscription services on day one. GTA VI will be sold as a full-price standalone product for years before potentially joining a service like PlayStation Plus Extra years later.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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5 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
What will the price of GTA VI be? (More than $60) | Kalshi | 97% |
What will the price of GTA VI be? (More than $70) | Kalshi | 75% |
What will the price of GTA VI be? (More than $80) | Kalshi | 41% |
What will the price of GTA VI be? (More than $90) | Kalshi | 33% |
What will the price of GTA VI be? (More than $100) | Kalshi | 19% |
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