GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Name: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
End: 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.51M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Vol

$6.51M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.51M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.51M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

18 markets tracked

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(18)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	91%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	6%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Augusto Cury finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Eduardo Leite finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Tereza Cristina finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Helder Barbalho finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

91%

Top Probability

$6.51M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate tha

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate tha

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes recei"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.51M
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.21M
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.94)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $274.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $470.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $205.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $810.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $218.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $173.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $750.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.24M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $606.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $452.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $380.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $207.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $228.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $143.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Eduardo Leite finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $142.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Tereza Cristina finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $35.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Helder Barbalho finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $21.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Augusto Cury finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $142.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics