This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on March 27, 2026. The market resolves based on data from Wunderground's historical weather records for that specific station, which is the official meteorological observation point for Shanghai. Participants are essentially betting on which temperature range will contain the official high for that date, measured in degrees Celsius. This type of market transforms a routine weather observation into a tradable financial instrument, allowing individuals to speculate on and hedge against specific climate outcomes. Interest stems from meteorologists, climate researchers, agricultural planners, and financial traders who use weather derivatives. The accuracy of such predictions has economic implications for energy demand, agricultural planning, and event scheduling in one of the world's largest cities. Recent advancements in seasonal forecasting and the increasing volatility of spring weather patterns in Eastern China have made these markets more active. The specific focus on Pudong International Airport is significant because it is the primary reference station for Shanghai's official weather data, used by aviation authorities, government agencies, and international climate databases.

Historical Context

Shanghai's climate has been systematically recorded since the Xujiahui Observatory began operations in 1873. The official observation site was moved to Hongqiao in the 1950s and then to the current primary station at Pudong International Airport in 1999. This relocation is important for historical comparisons, as urban heat island effects differ between locations. Analysis of historical data shows that March temperatures in Shanghai are highly variable. For example, on March 27, 2021, the high at Pudong was 22.5°C, while on the same date in 2010, it was only 10.8°C. The warmest March 27 on record occurred in 2018, with a temperature of 26.2°C. The long-term average high for March 27, based on data from 1991-2020, is approximately 16.5°C. This historical volatility is a primary driver of prediction market activity, as it creates genuine uncertainty. Past El Niño and La Niña events have been strong predictors of spring temperature anomalies in the region, with El Niño years typically leading to warmer conditions. The market for this specific date builds upon decades of climatology and recent trends toward warmer springs, with 7 of the 10 warmest March periods occurring since 2010.

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