$117.56K
1
6
$117.56K
1
6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 Six Nations Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 Six Nations Championship per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Six Nations Championship is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”
Prediction markets currently give France an 87% chance to win the 2026 Six Nations Championship. In simpler terms, traders collectively believe there is roughly a 9 in 10 chance that France will be crowned champion. This is an extremely high level of confidence for a sports prediction, especially in a tournament known for its competitive balance and unpredictability.
Several factors explain this strong confidence in France. First, the team has been consistently excellent in recent years. They won a Grand Slam in 2022 and have been a dominant force, combining a powerful forward pack with one of the most creative and dangerous backlines in world rugby. Their player pool is exceptionally deep, allowing them to maintain a high standard even when key players are unavailable.
Second, France will have the significant advantage of playing three of their five matches at home in the 2026 tournament. In the Six Nations, home field advantage is a major factor, and hosting both England and Ireland in Paris is a huge logistical benefit. Their final match is also at home, against Wales, which could set up a championship decider on familiar ground.
Finally, the market is likely accounting for the trajectory of other teams. While Ireland and England remain very strong, both are in periods of transition with new head coaches. France, under the established leadership of Fabien Galthié, appears to have the most stable and proven project heading into this cycle.
The entire tournament window from early February to mid-March 2026 is critical. France’s schedule presents two major hurdles. Their match against Ireland in Dublin on February 7th is an early massive test. A loss there would immediately shake market confidence. Their clash with England in Paris on March 7th is another pivotal fixture. Injuries to key French stars like Antoine Dupont or Grégory Alldritt in the lead-up to the tournament would also be a major story that could shift the odds.
Prediction markets are generally good at aggregating information for major sporting events, but an 87% probability two years in advance is unusually definitive. Markets for the Six Nations are typically more cautious, with favorites often given a 50-60% chance closer to the tournament. This current price reflects a strong consensus on France’s strengths, but it also leaves little room for the unexpected injuries, dips in form, or tactical surprises that define rugby. While the market intelligence is informed, the long time horizon means a lot can change, making this a very confident, but not certain, forecast.
Prediction markets currently price France as the heavy favorite to win the 2026 Six Nations Championship. On Polymarket, the contract "Will France win the 2026 Six Nations championship?" trades at 87 cents, implying an 87% probability. This is a high-confidence signal, suggesting traders view a French victory as nearly certain. The combined volume across all six national team markets is $118,000, providing moderate liquidity for a sports event over a year away. Ireland is a distant second in the pricing, with other teams like England and Scotland given minimal chance.
Two primary factors explain this extreme pricing. First, France's dominance in the 2024 and 2025 tournaments established them as the hemisphere's premier team. They have won the last two championships outright, blending a powerful forward pack with a creative backline. Second, the market accounts for home advantage in the fixture list. The 2026 schedule has France playing three of its five matches at home, including a critical final-round clash against England in Paris. Historical data shows home teams win approximately 60% of Six Nations matches, a significant edge in a tight tournament.
Traders also discount the threat from rivals. Ireland, while consistently strong, is seen as entering a transitional phase with an aging core of key players. England's project under a new coach remains unproven. The market has effectively anointed France already.
The current 87% price leaves little room for error and could be vulnerable to two catalysts. The most immediate is squad news during the 2026 tournament window. A major injury to a French linchpin like scrum-half Antoine Dupont or fly-half Romain Ntamack would immediately shift probabilities. Dupont's absence for any reason would likely cause a sharp correction.
The second risk is early tournament performance. If France stumbles in its opening match away to Wales on February 6, 2026, the narrative of inevitability would collapse. Ireland's opening fixtures are relatively favorable, and a strong Irish start paired with a French loss would quickly make the market competitive. The odds will remain static until the tournament begins, but will become highly volatile once the first whistle blows.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Six Nations Championship is an annual international rugby union competition contested by England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, and Wales. The 2026 edition will be the 132nd series of the tournament, which began in its current six-team format in 2000. The competition is one of the oldest and most prestigious in rugby, with origins dating back to the 1880s. Each team plays every other team once, with two points awarded for a win, one for a draw, and none for a loss. The team with the most points at the end of the five-match schedule is crowned champion. If teams are tied on points, the winner is determined by points difference, then total tries scored, and finally the head-to-head result. A Grand Slam is achieved by winning all five matches. The tournament typically runs from early February to mid-March, with matches played across iconic stadiums like Twickenham, Murrayfield, and the Stade de France. The 2026 champion will be the team that accumulates the most tournament points during that year's competition. Prediction markets allow participants to speculate on the outcome before and during the tournament, with odds shifting based on team form, injuries, and match results. Interest in the 2026 market emerges years in advance as fans and analysts assess team cycles, coaching changes, and emerging talent pools. The market resolves to the winning team, or to 'No' if a team becomes mathematically eliminated, or to 'Other' if the tournament is canceled or postponed beyond March 31, 2026.
The Six Nations Championship evolved from the Home Nations Championship (1883-1909) and the Five Nations Championship (1910-1999). Italy joined in 2000 to create the current format. The tournament's history is defined by periods of dominance. England holds the record for most outright titles with 29, followed by Wales with 28 and France with 18. Ireland's recent success under Andy Farrell has added to their total of 16 titles. The concept of a Grand Slam, winning all five matches, is a rare and prestigious achievement. England completed the most recent Grand Slam in 2016, followed by Wales in 2019, France in 2022, and Ireland in 2023. The championship has also been decided on the final day in dramatic fashion, such as in 2015 when Ireland, England, and Wales all had a chance to win on 'Super Saturday.' Italy's inclusion, while expanding the tournament, has often resulted in them finishing last. They have won the Wooden Spoon, awarded to the last-placed team, 18 times since 2000. However, they have recorded historic wins, such as against Wales in 2022 and Scotland in 2024, showing gradual progress. The tournament's scheduling, with breaks for club competitions, and its role as the primary northern hemisphere international competition, have remained consistent features for over a century.
The Six Nations is a major economic and cultural event in Europe. It generates hundreds of millions of euros in revenue from broadcasting rights, sponsorship, and tourism. Matches sell out stadiums, bringing significant income to host cities. For the national unions, success in the Six Nations directly impacts their financial health, influencing funding for grassroots rugby and player development pathways. The tournament also holds deep social and cultural significance. It reinforces national identities and historic rivalries, most notably between England and Scotland in the Calcutta Cup, which dates to 1879. Matches are national events that capture public attention beyond regular sports fans. For the sport itself, the Six Nations is a vital showcase for rugby union in the northern hemisphere. It drives participation rates, secures media coverage, and influences the global perception of the teams ahead of World Cups. The performance of teams like Italy can affect the competitive balance and long-term commercial appeal of the tournament.
As of late 2024, Ireland are the defending champions, having won the 2024 tournament. The 2025 Six Nations will provide the most immediate form guide for the 2026 championship. All six head coaches are under contract through at least the 2027 Rugby World Cup, suggesting coaching stability. Player development cycles are ongoing, with nations like England and Wales integrating new players after retirements of key figures from the 2023 World Cup. The match schedule for the 2026 tournament has not been officially released, but it will follow the standard rotation. Speculation about the 2026 favorite typically begins after the conclusion of the preceding year's tournament and the autumn internationals.
If two or more teams finish with the same number of tournament points, the winner is determined by points difference (points scored minus points conceded). If still tied, the next tiebreaker is the total number of tries scored. If a tie remains, the result is shared.
A Grand Slam is achieved when a team wins all five of its matches in a single Six Nations tournament. It is a rare and prestigious accomplishment, distinct from winning the championship, as a team can win the title without a Grand Slam if they lose a game but still finish with the most points.
No, Italy has never won the Six Nations Championship since joining in 2000. Their best finish was fourth place in 2007 and 2013. They have frequently finished last, an outcome often referred to as winning the 'Wooden Spoon.'
Matches are played on weekends from early February to mid-March. Each team plays two home and two away games, with one weekend off. Games are held at national stadiums: Twickenham (England), Stade de France (France), Aviva Stadium (Ireland), Stadio Olimpico (Italy), Murrayfield (Scotland), and Principality Stadium (Wales).
If the entire 2026 Six Nations Championship is cancelled, or postponed beyond March 31, 2026, and no winner is declared, this prediction market would resolve to 'Other.' Individual match cancellations typically result in a 0-0 draw or rescheduling, as per tournament rules.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
6 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 87% |
| Poly | 6% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
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