Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Army Black Knights vs. Lafayette Leopards
Total Volume
$44.67K
Events
1
Markets
1
Army Black Knights vs. Lafayette Leopards
Vol
$44.67K
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
100%
Top Probability
$44.67K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the CBB game between Army Black Knights and Lafayette Leopards on February 28 at 1:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets show traders are completely certain about the outcome of this college basketball game. The market gives Army a 100% chance to beat Lafayette. In practical terms, this means traders collectively believe an Army victory is a sure thing, with no real chance of a Lafayette win or a cancellation.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Two main factors explain this extreme confidence. First, the teams are in very different competitive tiers. Army plays in the higher-level Patriot League, while Lafayette is a non-conference opponent from the lower-tier Patriot League (they are both Patriot League members, but this is a non-conference scheduling anomaly). Army has a stronger record and has performed better against common opponents.
Second, the specific timing and context matter. This is a late-season non-conference game, which is unusual. These games are often used to tune up for conference tournaments, and Army has clear incentives to secure a win for momentum. Lafayette, with a weaker season record, has little to play for here beyond pride. The market reflects the view that the talent gap and motivational factors make the result a foregone conclusion.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The key event is the game itself, scheduled for February 28 at 1:00 PM ET. The only developments that could change the prediction are an official game postponement or cancellation before tip-off. A postponement would delay the market's resolution. A full cancellation with no make-up date would result in the market settling as a 50-50 split, which would be a major surprise against the current 100% odds.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For lopsided collegiate sporting events, prediction markets are generally accurate at identifying the heavy favorite. However, a 100% probability is extremely rare in sports. While Army is very likely to win, upsets do happen in basketball. The market may be overstating the certainty because of the relatively small amount of money wagered (about $45,000), which is low for a major sports market. This can sometimes lead to probabilities that don't fully account for low-chance random events, like a key player injury or an extraordinary shooting performance from the underdog.
Current Market Outlook
The prediction market on Polymarket shows the "Army Black Knights vs. Lafayette Leopards" contract trading at 100 cents, or 100% probability. This price indicates the market believes the event's outcome is fully determined and awaiting formal resolution. With $45,000 in total trading volume, liquidity is thin, which is typical for a niche college basketball market whose result is already known. The 100% price functions as a settlement signal, not a predictive forecast.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The market has resolved to 100% because the scheduled game concluded. Army defeated Lafayette 69-62 on February 28. Prediction markets for single-game sports outcomes typically converge to 0% or 100% immediately after the final whistle, as the result becomes a verifiable fact. The 100% price reflects this settled reality. The thin $45,000 volume suggests limited speculative interest, which is common for Patriot League matchups compared to major conference games that attract heavier betting.
What Could Change These Odds
Nothing can change these odds. The outcome is settled. The only remaining variable is the timing of the market's official resolution by Polymarket's administrators. According to the market's description, if the game was postponed, the contract would remain open. Since the game was completed, resolution should be imminent. A 50-50 resolution would only occur if the game was canceled entirely without a makeup date, which did not happen. Traders are now waiting for the platform to finalize the result and distribute funds accordingly.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
