Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will OFAC end its Russian diesel import license?

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Will OFAC end its Russian diesel import license?

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Will the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announce its revocation of, or an amendment to, Russia-related General License 135 so that the license no longer authorizes the importation into the United States of diesel fuel of Russian Federation origin before Nov 3, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announce its revocation of, or an amendment to, Russia-related General License 135 so that the license no longer authorizes the importation into the United States of diesel fuel of Russian Federation origin before Nov 3, 2026?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

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12%

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About This Event

Before Nov 3, 2026 If the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announces its revocation of, or an amendment to, Russia-related General License 135 so that the license no longer authorizes the importation into the United States of diesel fuel of Russian Federation origin before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An action that still authorizes the importation of Russian-origin diesel into the United States, including a narrowing of General License 135 or

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will OFAC end its Russian diesel import license?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Nov 3, 2026

If the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announces its revocation of, or an amendment to, Russia-related General License 135 so that the license no longer authorizes the importation into the United States of diesel fuel of Russian Federation origin before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An action that still authorizes the importation of Russian-origin diesel into the United States, including a narrowing of General License 135 or 

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announce its revocation of, or an amendment to, Russia-related General License 135 so that the license no longer authorizes the importation into the United States of diesel fuel of Russian Federation origin before Nov 3, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics