Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?

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$219.47

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Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?

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$219.47

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Kalshi

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0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $219.47

100%

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10 markets tracked

Will Democrats receive above 2% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democrats receive above 2% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	93%
Will Democrats receive above 3% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	86%
Will Democrats receive above 4% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	78%
Will Democrats receive above 5% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	71%
Will Democrats receive above 6% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	63%
Will Democrats receive above 7% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	55%
Will Democrats receive above 8% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	48%
Will Democrats receive above 9% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	33%
Will Democrats receive above 10% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	19%
Will Democrats receive above 11% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	12%

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93%

Top Probability

$219.47

Volume

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About This Event

On Nov 6, 2026 If the Democratic share of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic, or Dem., column of the row for voters who say they voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 6, 2026

If the Democratic share of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic, or Dem., column of the row for voters who say they voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Democratic share of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 11%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the row for voters who say they voted for Donald Trump in the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $219
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Democrats receive above 11% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Democrats receive above 9% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Democrats receive above 8% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Democrats receive above 7% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Democrats receive above 6% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Democrats receive above 5% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Democrats receive above 4% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Democrats receive above 3% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Democrats receive above 2% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Democrats receive above 10% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?

Volume$219.47

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KALSHI

Will Democrats receive above 2% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats receive above 2% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Democratic share of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the row for voters who say they voted for Donald Trump in the 2

KALSHI

Will Democrats receive above 3% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats receive above 3% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Democratic share of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the row for voters who say they voted for Donald Trump in the 2

KALSHI

Will Democrats receive above 4% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats receive above 4% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Democratic share of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the row for voters who say they voted for Donald Trump in the 2

KALSHI

Will Democrats receive above 5% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats receive above 5% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Democratic share of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the row for voters who say they voted for Donald Trump in the 2

KALSHI

Will Democrats receive above 6% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.5¢No 37.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats receive above 6% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Democratic share of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the row for voters who say they voted for Donald Trump in the 2

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/0jrKoV" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?"></iframe>

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Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?

Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?

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Will Democrats receive above 2% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Events (1)

Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?

Markets (10)

Will Democrats receive above 2% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 2% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 3% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 3% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 4% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 4% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 5% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 5% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 6% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 6% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Will Democrats receive above 2% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?

Will Democrats receive above 2% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 2% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 3% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 3% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 4% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 4% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 5% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 5% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 6% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 6% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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