GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

August Inflation China - Annual

Name: August Inflation China - Annual
End: 2026-09-09T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$24.47K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

August Inflation China - Annual

Vol

$24.47K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $24.47K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $24.47K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	Poly	43%
Will China’s CPI increase by at least 0.9% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	Poly	20%
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.3% and 0.4% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	Poly	16%
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	Poly	13%
Will China’s CPI increase by ≤0.2% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

43%

Top Probability

$24.47K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending August 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** August Inflation China - Annual
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 9, 2026 (5 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending August 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending August 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $24.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.61)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will China’s CPI increase by ≤0.2% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $882
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.3% and 0.4% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $9.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $10.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will China’s CPI increase by at least 0.9% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 9, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy