$4.40K
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18
$4.40K
1
18
18 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 65% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Nongshim RedForce" if Nongshim RedForce win against Team Secret in the named Valorant match in the VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs, scheduled for January 22 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Secret" if Team Secret win against Nongshim RedForce in the Valorant match. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolut
Prediction markets currently price a Nongshim RedForce victory at 65%, translating to an implied probability of about two-in-three. This indicates the consensus views RedForce as a clear, but not overwhelming, favorite to win this Best-of-3 Valorant match. With "Team Secret" shares trading around 35%, the market sees an upset as a distinct possibility. Trading volume is relatively thin at approximately $4,000, suggesting this is a niche esports market without major institutional betting interest.
The primary factor is regional hierarchy within the VCT Pacific league. Nongshim RedForce is a South Korean organization with a history of structured play and consistent regional performance, while Team Secret, representing the Philippines, has historically been seen as a tier below the top Korean squads. This structural advantage is a key driver of the odds. Furthermore, the Kickoff tournament's format adds pressure, and markets typically favor teams from regions with deeper tactical infrastructures in early-season matches where raw strategic execution is paramount.
Significant pre-match news, such as an announced player illness or a last-minute roster substitution for either team, could cause immediate volatility. The most concrete catalyst will be the map veto and selection process revealed just before the match begins on January 22. If Team Secret secures a favorable map pool that plays to their aggressive, chaotic style, we could see a rapid contraction in the price spread. Conversely, if RedForce secures their preferred, methodical maps, their share price could solidify above 70%.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The lack of a comparable market on platforms like Kalshi eliminates direct arbitrage opportunities and means all price discovery is contained within a single, illiquid pool. The thin volume amplifies the potential for price swings based on even modest-sized trades, so the current 65% probability should be viewed as a somewhat fragile consensus.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns a high-stakes Valorant Champions Tour (VCT) Pacific Kickoff playoff match between Nongshim RedForce and Team Secret, scheduled for January 22 at 3:00 AM ET. The match is a best-of-three (BO3) series, a standard format for elimination rounds in professional Valorant, where the first team to win two maps advances. The VCT Pacific Kickoff is the inaugural tournament of the 2024 VCT season, serving as a qualifier for the prestigious Masters Madrid event. The outcome of this specific match is significant as it determines which team progresses deeper into the Kickoff bracket and earns crucial circuit points toward Champions qualification. Interest stems from the clash between a top Korean organization, Nongshim RedForce, and a flagship team from the Philippines, Team Secret, representing a key regional rivalry within the Pacific league. The match is part of Riot Games' structured, franchised global esports system for Valorant, where results have tangible consequences for annual championship trajectories.
The rivalry between Korean and Filipino Valorant teams has been a consistent narrative in the Asia-Pacific region since the game's competitive inception. Historically, Korean teams like Vision Strikers (now DRX) dominated early regional events, while Filipino squads like Bren Esports (now Team Secret's core) gained fame by winning the first-ever Valorant Champions tournament in 2021. The VCT Pacific league was formed in 2023 as part of Riot's franchise system, merging teams from Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia, and South Asia into one premier competition. In the 2023 season, Nongshim RedForce (then under the organization T1) and Team Secret were both middle-of-the-pack finishers, with Team Secret notably defeating Korean teams in several upset victories. Their direct head-to-head record is limited but competitive, adding intrigue to this playoff encounter. The Kickoff tournament itself is a new format introduced for 2024, replacing the earlier split system, making this match one of the first tests of the new competitive calendar.
Beyond determining a single match winner, this result has significant implications for the 2024 VCT season. The winning team earns vital VCT Points, which are essential for qualifying for the two Masters international events and, ultimately, the Valorant Champions tournament at year's end. An early victory in the Kickoff can provide momentum and a psychological edge for the rest of the regular season. For the organizations involved, success translates to greater fan engagement, sponsor visibility, and potential revenue shares from the VCT partnership. For the Pacific region, matches like this help define the regional hierarchy and showcase the region's strength on the global stage, influencing perceptions ahead of international competitions.
As of the scheduled date, both teams have progressed through the initial group stage of the VCT Pacific Kickoff to reach this playoff match. The exact bracket positioning and their respective paths to this matchup are determined by prior group stage results. All player rosters are locked in for the tournament, and no last-minute substitutions are expected. The match is set to be broadcast live on official Valorant channels, including Twitch and YouTube. The outcome will immediately determine which team advances to the next round of the single-elimination playoff bracket and which team is eliminated from the Kickoff tournament.
The match is scheduled to begin at 3:00 AM Eastern Time (ET) on January 22. Viewers should check local time zone conversions, as this corresponds to late evening in East Asia.
The match will be streamed live on the official Valorant Twitch channel and the VALORANT Champions Tour YouTube channel. Co-streams by approved content creators may also be available.
If the game is postponed, the prediction market will remain open until the match is completed. The resolution is contingent on the final result of the rescheduled game.
In a Best-of-Three (BO3), teams compete on up to three different maps. The first team to win two map victories wins the match. Teams take turns banning and selecting maps from the competitive pool before the series begins.
The Kickoff is the first tournament of the VCT season. It determines early seeding, awards the first VCT Points of the year, and qualifies the winner from the Pacific region to the international Masters Madrid event.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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