$891.86K
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$891.86K
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Before Nov 13, 2025 If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. The President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her . This market will close and expire following the occurrence of the event.
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Donald Trump facing impeachment before January 1, 2028. On Polymarket, shares for "Yes" are trading near 20-25%, implying roughly a 1 in 4 chance. On Kalshi, the equivalent contract is priced higher, in the 35-40% range. This 14-15 percentage point spread indicates a significant cross-platform disagreement. A price in the 20-25% range suggests the market views a second Trump impeachment as a plausible but unlikely tail risk during this term.
The primary factor suppressing the "Yes" probability is the current political composition of Congress. For an impeachment to succeed in the House, the opposing party typically needs a majority. Markets are heavily weighing the 2024 election results and subsequent 2026 midterms, which will determine the House's partisan control for the bulk of this prediction window. Historical precedent also plays a role: while the House impeached Trump twice during his first term, the Senate did not convict, setting a high bar for what constitutes a politically viable impeachment push.
Secondly, markets are pricing in the expectation that any impeachment effort would require a concrete, consensus-triggering event, such as a judicial ruling or a clear legal violation proven in ongoing cases. Without such a catalyzing incident, the political cost for the opposition party is seen as prohibitively high, especially in a narrowly divided Congress.
The odds are most sensitive to the outcomes of the 2026 midterm elections. If they result in a significant shift in House control, the probability would adjust rapidly. A major, unforeseen development in one of the several legal cases involving the former president could also serve as an immediate catalyst, repricing the market overnight. Conversely, if the political landscape remains deadlocked and no major legal triggers emerge, the current low probabilities could hold or even decline as the resolution date approaches.
The notable 14-15% spread between Kalshi (~35-40%) and Polymarket (~20-25%) is significant. This divergence likely stems from differences in trader demographics and platform-specific liquidity. Polymarket's global, crypto-native user base may be applying a more skeptical, historically-informed discount to the likelihood of impeachment proceedings. Kalshi's US-regulated, retail-focused platform might attract traders weighing near-term political rhetoric more heavily. This creates a potential arbitrage opportunity, though it is constrained by the platforms' separate ecosystems and the multi-year timeline for resolution.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market addresses whether Donald Trump will face impeachment proceedings before November 13, 2025, should he win the 2024 presidential election and return to office. The market specifically resolves to 'Yes' if an impeachment resolution passes the House of Representatives while Trump holds the presidency. This topic has gained significant attention due to Trump's unique position as the only U.S. president to be impeached twice, in 2019 and 2021, and the ongoing legal and political controversies surrounding him. The question reflects broader concerns about constitutional governance, presidential accountability, and the potential for renewed political conflict in a second Trump administration. Interest in this market stems from Trump's continued dominance in the Republican Party, his ongoing legal challenges, and historical precedents that suggest impeachment could reemerge as a political tool in a deeply divided Congress. Analysts are closely monitoring how Trump's legal cases, particularly those alleging efforts to overturn the 2020 election, might influence congressional dynamics and the willingness of lawmakers to pursue impeachment in a future term.
The impeachment of a U.S. president is a rare constitutional mechanism. Only three presidents have faced formal impeachment by the House: Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1998, and Donald Trump in 2019 and 2021. Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 before the House could vote on articles of impeachment. Donald Trump's impeachments set modern precedents. His first impeachment in December 2019 centered on allegations he abused power by pressuring Ukraine to investigate political rival Joe Biden and obstructed Congress. The House voted largely along party lines, and the Senate acquitted him in February 2020. His second impeachment occurred with unprecedented speed following the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. The House charged him with incitement of insurrection, with ten Republicans joining all Democrats in voting to impeach. The Senate trial in February 2021 resulted in a 57-43 vote to convict, including seven Republican votes, but fell short of the two-thirds majority required. These events established a recent history of highly partisan impeachment proceedings and demonstrated that a president can be impeached after leaving office, as the second trial occurred during Trump's post-presidency.
The potential impeachment of a re-elected President Trump carries profound implications for American democracy and global stability. It represents a direct test of the constitutional system of checks and balances, particularly the legislature's ability to hold the executive accountable. A successful impeachment and conviction would result in Trump's removal from office and potential disqualification from future office, fundamentally altering the political landscape. Conversely, an unsuccessful impeachment could further erode the process's credibility as a tool of accountability and deepen political polarization. The process would consume immense political oxygen in Washington, potentially paralyzing legislative action on critical issues like the budget, national security, and foreign policy during a period of global uncertainty. For financial markets, prolonged political instability and constitutional crisis could trigger volatility, affect investor confidence, and influence fiscal and regulatory policy. Socially, it would likely exacerbate existing divisions, influencing public trust in institutions and potentially impacting social cohesion.
As of mid-2024, Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election. No active impeachment proceedings exist because he is not currently in office. However, he faces multiple criminal prosecutions, including a federal case in Washington D.C. led by Special Counsel Jack Smith concerning alleged conspiracies to overturn the 2020 election. The Supreme Court is considering claims of presidential immunity that could impact these cases. The political landscape is defined by the upcoming November 2024 elections, which will determine control of the House and Senate for the 2025-2027 term. The composition of the next Congress will be the primary factor in whether impeachment is a viable political action.
The Constitution does not explicitly limit impeachment to official acts committed in office. Historical debate exists, but the Senate's 2021 trial of Donald Trump for incitement of insurrection, which concerned events near the end of his term, established a precedent that actions closely connected to the office can be grounds for impeachment, even if the trial occurs after leaving office.
Impeachment is the formal accusation by the House of Representatives, similar to an indictment in criminal law. Conviction is the subsequent verdict by the Senate, which requires a two-thirds majority. Only conviction results in removal from office. A president can be impeached by the House but acquitted by the Senate, as happened to Trump twice.
If the Senate convicts a sitting President Trump, he would be immediately removed from office. The vice president, who would be his 2024 running mate, would then succeed to the presidency under the terms of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
The timeline varies. Trump's first impeachment inquiry lasted about three months from announcement to House vote. His second impeachment moved much faster, with the House voting just one week after the Capitol attack. A Senate trial usually follows within weeks. A full process could span several months.
Potential grounds could relate to ongoing legal issues, such as alleged obstruction of justice or abuse of power connected to the 2020 election cases, or actions taken in a new term perceived as defying court orders or undermining constitutional norms. The specific articles would depend on events during his potential administration.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12% | 17% | 5% |
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Before Nov 13, 2025 If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. The President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her . This market will close and expire following the occurrence of the event.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the
If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her . Early close condition: This market will close and expire following the occurren
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor co
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