GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Will Trump be impeached?

Name: Will Trump be impeached?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$961.99K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Will Trump be impeached?

Vol

$961.99K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $961.99K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

1.1%avg

max 1.1%

Arbitrage

of 1 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $961.99K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(1)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	3%	4%	1%

Single-Platform Markets(3)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

61%

Top Probability

$961.99K

Volume

Markets

18.3%

Price Gap

About This Event

Before 2028 If the President of the United States has been impeached before X 1, Y then the market resolves Z The President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her . This market will close and expire following the occurrence of the event.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump be impeached?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2028

If the President of the United States has been impeached before X 1, Y then the market resolves Z The President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her . This market will close and expire following the occurrence of the event.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her . Early close condition: This market will close and expire following the occurren"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $962.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $149.1K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.45)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (1 mkts) vs Kalshi (4 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $962.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.1% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will the President be impeached before Sep 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump be impeached?

Volume$0.00

Markets4

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the

Volume$961.99K

Markets1

4 of 4

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?

If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her . Early close condition: This market will close and expire following the occurren

KALSHI

Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027?

If the President of the United States has been impeached before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire following the occurrence of the event.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average3.3%

Polymarket

2.8%

Kalshi+1.1%

3.9%

Difference:1.1%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 2.8¢No 97.3¢

KKalshi

Yes 3.9¢No 96.2¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?

If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her . Early close condition: This market will close and expire following the occurren

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

KALSHI

Will the President be impeached before Sep 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President be impeached before Sep 1, 2026?

If the President of the United States has been impeached before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Early close condition: This market will close and expire following the occurrence of the event.

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Discussion

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Next Market Closes

169d 5h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

3¢

Polymarket

4¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/0peeb_" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Trump be impeached?"></iframe>

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Will Trump be impeached?