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Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)

Name: UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)
End: 2026-05-03T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$104.89K

Events

Markets

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UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)

Vol

$104.89K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $104.89K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $104.89K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	77%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	62%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	47%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	42%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	38%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)	Poly	33%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	30%
Will Jonathan Micallef win by KO or TKO?	Poly	16%
Will Themba Gorimbo win by KO or TKO?	Poly	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

77%

Top Probability

$104.89K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Themba Gorimbo" if Themba Gorimbo is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jonathan Micallef at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Jonathan Micallef" if Jonathan Micallef is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Themba Gorimbo" if Themba Gorimbo is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jonathan Micallef at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026.

It will resolve to "Jonathan Micallef" if Jonathan Micallef is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Themba Gorimbo and Jonathan Micallef at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $105.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $67.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.56)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $18
  DATA: [Over: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $104.9K
  DATA: [Themba Gorimbo: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [Jonathan Micallef: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Themba Gorimbo win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jonathan Micallef win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $23
  DATA: [Over: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 53.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)

Volume$104.89K

Markets9

9 of 9

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Fight to Go the Distance?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Fight to Go the Distance?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Themba Gorimbo and Jonathan Micallef at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by submission?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by submission?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Themba Gorimbo and Jonathan Micallef at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwi

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Themba Gorimbo and Jonathan Micallef at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight

POLYMARKET

Will Jonathan Micallef win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Jonathan Micallef win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jonathan Micallef defeats Themba Gorimbo at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or

POLYMARKET

Will Themba Gorimbo win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Themba Gorimbo win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Themba Gorimbo defeats Jonathan Micallef at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or

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Average Yes Price

39¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/0qWo6U" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)"></iframe>

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UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)

UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)

Markets (9)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Jonathan Micallef win by KO or TKO?

Will Jonathan Micallef win by KO or TKO?

Will Themba Gorimbo win by KO or TKO?

Will Themba Gorimbo win by KO or TKO?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Jonathan Micallef win by KO or TKO?

Will Jonathan Micallef win by KO or TKO?

Will Themba Gorimbo win by KO or TKO?

Will Themba Gorimbo win by KO or TKO?

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