Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?
PM $662.6K
1
12
Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?
PM $662.6K
1
12
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Islam Makhachev at 92.8%.
Polymarket
- Islam Makhachev92.8%
- Carlos Prates5.4%
- Jack Della Maddalena<0.1%
- Shavkat Rakhmonov<0.1%
- Ian Machado Garry<0.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $662.6K
Reported volume · provider units
12
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks who will hold the UFC Welterweight championship at the end of 2026. The saved market rules state that resolution follows "the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET," and that "Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count" [1]. If the belt is vacant at the check time, or no champion exists in the division, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
The rules also name the UFC athlete directory as the primary resolution source [1]. The provider lists an end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is a listed close time, not the stated check time in the rules, so readers should not treat the two as identical.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:04:38Z [1]. These prices describe that moment only. They are not executable quotes, verified probabilities, or a current view after the snapshot.
The saved sample contains 12 binary markets, one for each named fighter, each with a Yes and a No price [1]. The Yes prices are: Islam Makhachev 0.9235, Carlos Prates 0.0455, and ten other fighters at 0.0005 each [1]. Makhachev's Yes price is the highest in the sample. The ten fighters at 0.0005 are listed at the same price, so the snapshot does not separate them further.
The sample is marked complete for this event, with 12 of 12 markets included and no partial sample flag [1]. The provider warning, however, states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The sample also contains no separate "Other" market, so the evidence does not show how that outcome is priced.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not show trader counts or volume depth. Nothing here reports recent fight results, title status changes, or announced schedules. Whether any fighter holds the belt on the check date depends on events after this snapshot, which the source does not cover.
No other platform is included, so these prices should not be compared with or averaged against contracts on other venues that may use different wording, close times, or resolution sources.
References
- Polymarket: Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks who will hold the official UFC Welterweight championship at the end of 2026. According to the contract rules, it will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET [1]. The rules say that only official UFC division champions count and that interim champions do not [1]. They also state that if the relevant belt is vacant at the market's check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The primary resolution source named is official information from the UFC's athletes page [1]. The saved record lists an end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This does not match the stated rule of 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026, and the saved record does not explain the difference. Readers should treat the written rule as the description of the resolution condition and note that the listed timestamp is a provider field. A date in the contract rules marks when the check is defined to occur. It is not an announcement that any event will happen on that date. Each individual contract in the event is framed as a yes or no question about one named fighter holding the official belt on December 31, 2026 [1]. The event therefore asks a single question across several possible outcomes: whichever fighter holds the official title at the check time determines which contract resolves yes, and a vacant belt would resolve the event to "Other" under the stated rules [1].
Historical Context
The supplied Wikipedia material describes two UFC events in 2026. UFC 328 was described as a mixed martial arts event that took place on May 9, 2026, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey [3]. UFC 334 was described as an upcoming event scheduled for November 14, 2026, at Madison Square Garden in New York City [2]. The retrieved text does not explain how either event bears on the welterweight title, and it does not establish any title result from either card.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the identity of the official UFC Welterweight champion at a defined check time, which the rules place at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026 [1]. Because the rules exclude interim champions and treat a vacant belt or missing champion as "Other" [1], the contract depends on official division status rather than on any title claim or informal ranking. Readers who want to understand the question should focus on those rule details, since they determine how the contract resolves regardless of which fighter is discussed.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does an interim champion count for this contract?
No. The rules state that only official UFC division champions count and that interim champions will not count [1].
What happens if the welterweight belt is vacant?
If the relevant belt is vacant at the market's check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Where will the contract look to determine the champion?
The primary resolution source is official information from the UFC, linked to its athletes page [1].
Why does the listed end time differ from the stated check time?
The rules set the check at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026 [1], while the saved record lists 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z as the end time [1]. The supplied evidence does not explain the discrepancy, so the rule text and the provider field should be read separately.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.