Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The saved Polymarket event asks how many valid votes will be cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon. The rules say the market "will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast" and that "[i]nvalidated or blank votes are not included" [1]. For ranked-choice or preferential systems, "the first-round vote total will be used" [1].

The rules also set edge cases. If the reported value "falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket" [1]. If results "are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET," the market "will resolve to the lowest range bracket" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. Each bracket is a separate yes/no contract, so the wording of each title matters when comparing them.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:54:41.032Z [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved Yes prices were highest for the 1,900,000 to 2,000,000 bracket at 0.3625, followed by 2,000,000 to 2,100,000 at 0.335, and 2,200,000 or more at 0.179 [1]. The other brackets were lower, with the under 1,500,000 contract at 0.024 and the lowest saved bracket, 1,600,000 to 1,700,000, at 0.003 [1].

The nine saved markets are the only Polymarket contracts in this event snapshot, and the coverage record reports 9 of 9 markets included with no partial sample [1]. The evidence still does not establish that every possible turnout range is listed, so a missing range should not be read as having a lower price. The Yes prices here sum to about 1.00, which is consistent with a set of mutually exclusive brackets, but this is a single snapshot from one platform.

Volume and any trader count are not included in this evidence, so the prices cannot be read as liquidity or agreement among traders.

What remains uncertain

The snapshot is from October 15, 2026, and the evidence does not show prices at any later time. The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are. Because this is a single event on one platform, no cross-platform comparison is supported. Final resolution depends on certified official results, and the evidence does not report any election results.

References

1. Polymarket: Oregon Senate Election: Turnout. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.