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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

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$211.38

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Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

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$211.38

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Kalshi

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Kalshi

markets · $211.38

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Volume DistributionTotal: $211.38

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24 markets tracked

Will the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Single-Platform Markets(24)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	73%
Will the number of Delaware Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 13 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	67%
Will the number of Illinois Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 36 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	67%
Will the number of Maryland Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 29 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	63%
Will the number of Hawaii State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 17 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	56%
Will the number of California State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 27 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	56%
Will the number of Delaware House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 25 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	55%
Will the number of Connecticut State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	53%
Will the number of Colorado House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 44 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	52%
Will the number of California State Assembly seats held by Democrats be at least 54 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	48%
Will the number of New York State Assembly seats held by Democrats be at least 100 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	46%
Will the number of Connecticut House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 101 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	46%
Will the number of Washington House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 66 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	44%
Will the number of Vermont Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	44%
Will the number of New Mexico House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 47 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	44%
Will the number of Oregon State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	43%
Will the number of Oregon House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 40 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	43%
Will the number of New York State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 42 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	43%
Will the number of Colorado Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	43%
Will the number of Nevada Assembly seats held by Democrats be at least 28 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	43%
Will the number of Maine Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	42%
Will the number of Vermont House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 100 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	41%
Will the number of Nevada Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 14 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	30%
Will the number of Washington State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 33 after the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	27%

AI Analysis

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73%

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$211.38

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About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If the number X seats held by Democrats is at least Y after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Democratic Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election results are certified. Every seat on the 2026 ballot is attributed to its certified winner, and every other seat to the party designation the state election authority recorded for the winner of that seat's most recent general

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 3, 2026

If the number X seats held by Democrats is at least Y after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Democratic Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election results are certified. Every seat on the 2026 ballot is attributed to its certified winner, and every other seat to the party designation the state election authority recorded for the winner of that seat's most recent general

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of Washington State Senate seats held by Democrats is at least 33 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Democratic Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general electio"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $211
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of Washington State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 33 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of Washington House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 66 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of Vermont Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of Vermont House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 100 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of Oregon State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of Oregon House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 40 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of New York State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 42 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the number of New York State Assembly seats held by Democrats be at least 100 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the number of Nevada Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 14 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the number of Nevada Assembly seats held by Democrats be at least 28 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the number of New Mexico House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 47 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the number of Maine Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the number of Maryland Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 29 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the number of Illinois Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 36 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the number of Hawaii State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 17 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the number of Delaware Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 13 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the number of Delaware House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 25 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the number of Connecticut State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the number of Connecticut House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 101 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the number of Colorado Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will the number of Colorado House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 44 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $211
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will the number of California State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 27 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will the number of California State Assembly seats held by Democrats be at least 54 after the November 3, 2026 general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

Volume$211.38

Markets24

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KALSHI

Will the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.0¢No 27.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats is at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Democratic Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 gener

KALSHI

Will the number of Delaware Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 13 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Delaware Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 13 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Delaware Senate seats held by Democrats is at least 13 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Democratic Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election result

KALSHI

Will the number of Illinois Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 36 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.5¢No 33.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Illinois Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 36 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Illinois Senate seats held by Democrats is at least 36 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Democratic Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election result

KALSHI

Will the number of Maryland Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 29 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.5¢No 37.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Maryland Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 29 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Maryland Senate seats held by Democrats is at least 29 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Democratic Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election result

KALSHI

Will the number of Hawaii State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 17 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of Hawaii State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 17 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Hawaii State Senate seats held by Democrats is at least 17 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Democratic Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election re

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/he8snH" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?"></iframe>

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Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

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Will the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Events (1)

Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

Markets (24)

Will the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Delaware Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 13 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Delaware Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 13 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Illinois Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 36 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Illinois Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 36 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Maryland Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 29 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Maryland Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 29 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Hawaii State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 17 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Hawaii State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 17 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Will the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026?

Will the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Delaware Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 13 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Delaware Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 13 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Illinois Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 36 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Illinois Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 36 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Maryland Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 29 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Maryland Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 29 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Hawaii State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 17 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

Will the number of Hawaii State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 17 after the November 3, 2026 general election?

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