XRP Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
PM $0
1
1
XRP Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract is titled "XRP Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET" [1]. According to the saved rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP data stream. The rules state that the market concerns this feed and is "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-31T04:15:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's listed close time, not a resolution result. The supplied evidence does not include a resolved outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-30T13:21:53.066Z [1]. The prices therefore describe the observation time, not the moment you read this. The saved outcome prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. In this record the two prices are close to each other and sum to 1.000, so the snapshot shows near-even pricing between the two outcomes. The evidence does not explain this.
The coverage is limited. The record contains one provider event and one market, with all saved markets included and no partial sample [1]. No other platform or contract appears, so there is no cross-platform comparison here. The evidence also contains no volume or trader data, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold either view.
When comparing this contract with other XRP contracts, check the wording first. Differences in reference feed, time window, or listed close time can mean the contracts settle on different questions. A difference in price between such contracts does not by itself show an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence records the market status as active at retrieval, but it does not show later status, later prices, or the final resolution. It also does not describe how the Chainlink feed moved during the window. The saved source is a single provider event, and the sample warning notes that providers may not list every possible real-world outcome [1]. Readers who need current status or prices should check the live provider page directly.
References
- Polymarket: XRP Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term binary contract on the price of XRP in US dollars, listed on Polymarket under the title "XRP Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET" [1]. The contract covers a single 15-minute window. Its rules say it will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The outcomes are therefore defined by comparing an average over the window with a starting reference, not by a price at a single moment. The resolution source is named in the rules as information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream for the XRP/USD pair, and not according to any other source or spot market [1]. A trader reading the contract should therefore look at that specific data feed rather than at prices on individual exchanges, since the two can differ. The listed end time is 2026-10-31T04:15:00.000Z [1]. That end time is the contract's scheduled close as written in the rules and is not evidence of when the market settled. The record also captures when the provider event was observed, 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z, and when the source was retrieved, 2026-10-30T13:21:53.073Z [1]. These are separate timestamps, and neither one is the resolution time. The event contains one market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. This is a single-market event, so there is no wider field of contracts to compare it against.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the XRP/USD price, as calculated by the Chainlink TWAP data stream, averages at or above its starting level over one 15-minute window [1]. Because it uses a time-weighted average rather than a single price, a brief spike or dip at the start or end of the window affects the result less than a sustained move would. The contract is useful for understanding how a short-horizon crypto question is written: the window, the reference price, the averaging method, and the named data stream together determine the outcome. Readers should note that the rules restrict the question to the Chainlink feed, so price movements reported elsewhere do not by themselves determine the answer [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of XRP over the 12:00AM to 12:15AM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source is used to settle the contract?
The rules name the Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval as the resolution source [1]. The rules say other sources and spot markets are not used [1].
Does a price on a crypto exchange determine the result?
No. The rules state that the market is about the price according to the Chainlink TWAP data stream for XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets [1].
When is the contract scheduled to end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T04:15:00.000Z [1]. This is the scheduled end recorded in the source, and the source does not state a settlement time.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
PM $123.46M · K 27.02M contractsWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
Related contracts
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?
Related contracts
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
XRP Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
PM $0
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
PM $0
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
PM $0
Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.