What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
PM $113.29M · K 24.99M contracts
7
67
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
PM $113.29M · K 24.99M contracts
7
67
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is ↑ 85,000 at 70.5%, and on Kalshi it is Above $99,999.99 at 25.5%.
Polymarket
- ↑ 85,00070.5%
- ↑ 90,00058.5%
- ↓ 80,00046%
- ↑ 87,50038.5%
- ↑ 95,00037.5%
Kalshi
- Above $99,999.9925.5%
- Below $55,000.009.5%
- Above $109,999.998.5%
- Below $50,000.007.5%
- Below $45,000.005.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $113.29M · K 24.99M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
67
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied material covers four provider events about Bitcoin price thresholds. The Kalshi events use the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) with a trimmed mean. Each minute's values are taken, the top and bottom 20 percent are removed, and the rest are averaged [1][3][4]. Under these Kalshi rules, a market resolves early if the index crosses its threshold during the measurement period [1][3][4]. The Polymarket excerpt gives only the event questions and a listed end time, so the supplied text does not state how its resolution is measured [2].
The wording also differs. Kalshi's "How high" and "How low" events ask whether Bitcoin will be above or below a level [3][4]. Polymarket's markets use "reach" and "dip to" phrasing [2]. The Kalshi $200k rule refers to a start date of 2025-10-10 and a deadline of January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET [1]. Its listed end date, 2027-01-31T05:00:00Z, does not match that rule text, and the provider's listed end time is marked as not supplied [1]. Rule text and listed close times should be read separately.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13Z, and the source retrieval time is 16:59:23Z. These prices describe that saved snapshot, not necessarily current conditions. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Within the Kalshi maximum-price event, the "above $99,999.99" contract is quoted at 0.265 Yes [3]. Within the minimum-price event, the "below $55000.00" contract is at 0.115 Yes [4]. These are separate thresholds in separate events, so they should not be averaged or read as one price curve. The Kalshi $200k contract is quoted at 0.02 Yes [1].
The Polymarket event is a partial sample: 12 of 30 markets were included, ordered by Yes price [2]. The included "reach $90,000" contract is at 0.595 Yes, and the included "dip to $40,000" contract is at 0.0355 Yes [2]. Omitted markets are not shown, so no conclusion should be drawn about their prices.
Volume and trader counts are not in the evidence, so no claim about liquidity or agreement among traders is possible.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price changed, and it contains no news, trader counts, or historical accuracy data. Listed close times differ across the events: the Polymarket end time is 2027-01-01T05:00:00Z, while the Kalshi listed end times vary in the supplied data [1][2][3][4]. Price differences between platforms may reflect different rules, sampling, or timing, so they should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
- Polymarket: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
- Kalshi: How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
- Kalshi: How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, a digital asset that uses cryptography to control its creation and management rather than relying on central authorities [5]. It was originally designed as a medium of exchange, but it is now primarily regarded as a store of value [5]. The contracts described here do not forecast Bitcoin's future. They are binary markets that ask whether Bitcoin will reach or fall to a stated price threshold within a stated window. Kalshi lists markets on whether Bitcoin will be above 200,000 dollars by 2027 [1], on how high Bitcoin will get in 2026 [3], and on how low it will get in 2026 [4]. Polymarket has an event titled What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026, with contracts on whether Bitcoin reaches or dips to various prices before 2027 [2]. The Kalshi rules define the outcome by the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, abbreviated BRTI, using a trimmed mean. Under these rules, all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance through the target time are collected, the top 20% and bottom 20% are removed, and the remaining 60% are averaged [1][3][4]. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period, the market resolves immediately, which means it can expire early [1][3][4]. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No [1][3][4]. The Polymarket excerpt available here does not include its resolution wording, so this description applies to the Kalshi contracts only. The sources do not establish Bitcoin's price at any particular moment. The prices shown in the market data are snapshots of contract prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Historical Context
Bitcoin was invented in 2008 when an unknown person published a white paper under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, and use of bitcoin as a currency began in 2009 with the release of its open-source implementation [6]. From the mid-2010s, some businesses began accepting bitcoin in addition to traditional currencies [5]. From 2021 to 2025, El Salvador adopted it as legal tender currency before revoking it [6]. Because bitcoin is pseudonymous, its use by criminals has attracted the attention of regulators, leading to its ban by several countries [6]. These sources describe background only and do not report recent developments.
Why It Matters
These contracts measure whether Bitcoin's price, as represented by the BRTI under the stated rules, crosses a set threshold within a set window [1][3][4]. The trimmed mean design means a single brief spike or dip does not by itself determine the outcome, because the top and bottom 20% of per-minute values are excluded before averaging [1][3][4]. The Kalshi threshold markets in the sample show a range of snapshot prices. For the event asking whether Bitcoin will be above 200,000 dollars by 2027, the Yes price was 0.02 [1]. For the 2026 high event, Yes prices in the sample ranged from 0.265 for the threshold of 99,999.99 dollars to 0.005 for the threshold of 199,999.99 dollars, and all 7 markets for that event are included [3]. For the 2026 low event, all 4 markets are included, with Yes prices from 0.115 for below 55,000 dollars to 0.05 for below 40,000 dollars [4]. For the Polymarket event, 12 of 30 markets are included, selected by highest finite Yes price, and the included Yes prices run from 0.595 for reaching 90,000 dollars to 0.0355 for dipping to 40,000 dollars [2]. Because the Polymarket sample is partial, these figures should not be read as the full set of outcomes for that event, and the Kalshi and Polymarket samples should not be compared as a single ranking.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Bitcoin price threshold contract resolve on?
The Kalshi contracts resolve on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, using per-minute values, removal of the top and bottom 20%, and an average of the remaining 60% [1][3][4].
What happens if Bitcoin crosses the threshold before the target date?
The Kalshi rules state that if the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period, the market immediately resolves, and the contract can expire early [1][3][4].
What happens if no data is available at expiration?
Under the Kalshi rules, if no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No [1][3][4].
Why does the Polymarket sample not show every outcome?
The Polymarket event has 30 markets and the saved sample includes 12, selected by highest finite Yes price [2]. The sample is partial, so it is not the full set of markets for that event.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
