Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract on the Bitcoin price for a five-minute window. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The contract title gives the window as "October 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the contract states that it concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a spot price, another exchange, or a different index should note that it is not measuring those values.
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T04:20:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not a confirmed resolution time. The supplied evidence does not show that the market has closed or resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z, and the application retrieved the source at 2026-10-30T13:02:31.707Z [1]. The provider reported the status as active at retrieval [1]. These are snapshot times, so the prices below describe that observation and not conditions at the time of reading.
At observation, the quoted prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These prices sum to 1.00, but they are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include order book depth, spreads, or trade history, so it does not show whether either side could be filled at these levels.
The coverage record lists one market in this provider event, with no partial sample [1]. Because only this binary contract is in the saved event, there is no other outcome in this sample to compare against. The evidence does not explain why either price is where it is, and this comparison does not identify any mispricing.
What remains uncertain
The evidence contains a single provider event from one platform. It does not include other platforms, other Bitcoin contracts with different windows, or any settlement results. Contracts on other platforms may use different reference prices, time windows, or close times, so their prices should not be averaged with or treated as equivalent to this one.
The evidence also does not include volume, liquidity, or the number of participants, so it cannot show how deep this market is or how many traders hold either view. Any statement about the eventual outcome would go beyond the supplied sources.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term crypto contract on Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET" [1]. Its rules state that it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The contract is therefore about the direction of a five-minute average compared with the starting price, not about where Bitcoin closes or trades at any single moment. The resolution source is Chainlink. The rules specify the BTC/USD TWAP data stream, with a 60-second TWAP stream, and state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink stream and not any other source or spot market [1]. This matters because a reader who checks a different exchange or price feed could see a different figure from the one that decides the contract. The listed end time is 2026-10-31T04:20:00Z [1]. The title describes the window as 12:15AM to 12:20AM ET, which matches that closing time under Eastern Daylight Time. The record also includes an observation time of 2026-10-30T12:00:07Z and a retrieval time of 2026-10-30T13:02:31Z [1]. These are separate from the contract's closing time: the observation and retrieval times describe when the record was captured, and the end time describes when the measurement window closes. Neither shows how the contract finally resolved, and the record does not contain a resolution outcome. At the time the record was captured, the provider listed the contract as active [1]. That status describes the saved snapshot only.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over a five-minute window ends at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it is tied to a specific data stream and a short window, the outcome depends on how the average behaves inside those five minutes rather than on a broader view of Bitcoin's direction. The contract's price is a market snapshot of how traders were pricing the two outcomes at the time of capture. It is not an executable quote and not a verified probability of the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
It resolves to Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The rules specify the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream and say the market is not based on any other sources or spot markets [1].
Why does the time window matter?
The title and listed end time define a five-minute window, from 12:15AM to 12:20AM ET, which corresponds to a listed end of 2026-10-31T04:20:00Z [1]. Only prices within that range are part of the stated measurement.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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