$13.59K
1
5
$13.59K
1
5
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. A
Prediction markets currently price Justin Story's nomination at 44% on Polymarket, translating to an implied probability of 44%. This indicates the market views his candidacy as plausible but lacking frontrunner status, with the race remaining highly fluid. The "Other" category collectively trades at a significant premium, reflecting the expectation that a different candidate is more likely to emerge. With only $14,000 in total volume, liquidity is thin, meaning these odds are preliminary and sensitive to new information.
The primary factor is the open-seat nature of this race, as incumbent Representative Darren Soto is a Democrat, making the Republican nomination valuable but unpredictable. Justin Story, a former congressional staffer, has early name recognition and establishment ties, which is likely supporting his 44% price. However, Florida's 9th District, covering parts of Orlando and Kissimmee, is a Democratic-leaning seat, which may be suppressing more aggressive betting on any single Republican candidate, as the general election is considered an uphill battle. The thin volume suggests the market is still awaiting concrete candidate declarations and platform details.
The odds will become more defined as the August 2026 primary approaches and candidate fields solidify. Key catalysts include official candidate filings, major endorsements from Florida Republican figures, and early fundraising reports. A high-profile local official entering the race could quickly diminish Story's current market position. Conversely, if Story secures a decisive endorsement, such as from Governor Ron DeSantis or the state party apparatus, his probability could see a sharp increase. Polling data, once available in 2025, will be a major driver of market movement.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on determining which candidate will secure the Republican Party nomination for Florida's 9th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election. The primary election is scheduled for August 18, 2026, with the winner advancing to contest the general election for this congressional seat. The market will resolve based on official Republican sources, including the Republican National Committee's website, and will default to 'Other' if no nominee is officially declared by November 3, 2026. Florida's 9th District, encompassing parts of eastern Hillsborough County and western Polk County, including areas around Lakeland and Plant City, is a politically competitive district that has seen shifting party control in recent cycles. The 2026 primary is attracting attention as an early indicator of Republican strategy and voter sentiment in a key Florida swing district ahead of the next presidential election cycle. Political observers are monitoring this race to gauge the influence of different Republican factions, the role of national party support, and the district's evolving demographic and political landscape.
Florida's 9th Congressional District has undergone significant changes since its creation after the 2010 census. Originally numbered as the 9th District, it was designed as a Hispanic-majority district covering parts of Orange, Osceola, and Polk counties. Democrat Alan Grayson represented the district from 2013 to 2017 after winning the 2012 election. Following court-ordered redistricting in 2015, the district's boundaries were substantially altered, shifting its geographic center and political complexion. Democrat Darren Soto won the newly configured district in 2016, becoming the first Puerto Rican from Florida elected to Congress. He has held the seat since, but with declining margins of victory in recent cycles, indicating increasing competitiveness. In the 2022 election, Soto won with 53.4% of the vote against Republican nominee Scotty Moore. The 2024 election saw a similar margin, with Soto defeating Republican Jose Castillo by approximately 6 percentage points. This pattern of close elections has made FL-09 a perennial target for Republican recruitment efforts, with the party viewing it as a potential pickup opportunity in favorable political environments.
The outcome of the FL-09 Republican primary matters significantly for the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. As a competitive district in a critical swing state, flipping this seat could contribute to Republican efforts to maintain or expand their House majority following the 2026 midterms. The primary winner will shape Republican policy messaging on key issues important to the district's constituents, including agriculture, healthcare, and economic development. Beyond immediate electoral implications, this primary serves as a testing ground for Republican strategies in diverse, suburban-urban districts that are increasingly decisive in national elections. The candidate who emerges will influence the party's appeal to the district's growing Hispanic population and suburban voters, demographic groups that both parties are aggressively courting. The primary's tone and outcome may also signal the relative strength of different Republican factions, from establishment figures to more populist or grassroots-oriented contenders, within Florida politics.
As of late 2024, the field for the 2026 Republican primary remains undeclared, with potential candidates likely assessing the political landscape following the 2024 general election results. The Republican Party is in a standard post-election evaluation period, analyzing performance data from the 2024 race to inform recruitment and strategy for the next cycle. Party officials are beginning informal conversations with potential contenders, including previous candidates and local elected officials who might consider a congressional run. Fundraising networks are reactivating, and political action committees are starting to evaluate where to allocate resources for the 2026 cycle. The district's boundaries remain unchanged from the 2024 election, as Florida completed its redistricting process following the 2020 census, providing stability for campaign planning.
The Republican primary for Florida's 9th Congressional District is scheduled for August 18, 2026. This date aligns with Florida's statewide primary election date for the 2026 midterm cycle.
The current representative is Democrat Darren Soto, who has held the seat since 2017. He was most recently re-elected in November 2024 and will be the incumbent facing the Republican nominee in the 2026 general election.
The district includes parts of eastern Hillsborough County and western Polk County in central Florida. Major communities include Lakeland, Plant City, and parts of the Brandon area, encompassing both suburban and agricultural regions.
The market resolves based on official Republican Party sources, primarily the Republican National Committee website, which will certify the nominee. If no nominee is officially announced by November 3, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'.
The current configuration of Florida's 9th District, established after 2015 redistricting, has never elected a Republican. However, previous configurations of congressional districts in this geographic area have elected Republicans, including former Representative Dennis Ross.
In the 2024 election, Republican nominee Jose Castillo received approximately 47% of the vote against incumbent Democrat Darren Soto, who won with about 53%. This six-point margin indicates the district's competitive nature.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
5 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 45% |
| Poly | 42% |
| Poly | 41% |
| Poly | 41% |
| Poly | 38% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/0tbH7b" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="FL-09 Republican Primary Winner"></iframe>