Name: Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
End: 2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z

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Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place | PredictPedia

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23 markets tracked

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

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Single-Platform Markets(23)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	97%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will José Luna finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will George Forsyth finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will César Acuña finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Carlos Espá finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will José Williams finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, June 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 12, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid vote"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.10M
* **Total Liquidity:** $85.3K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 12.91)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $30.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will José Luna finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $26.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $24.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $67.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $26.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $22.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Fernando Olivera finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $25.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $30.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Alfonso López Chau finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $29.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will George Forsyth finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $28.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Enrique Valderrama finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $25.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Mesías Guevara finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $24.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $147.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will César Acuña finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $23.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Roberto Chiabra finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $22.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Carlos Espá finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $25.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $22.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $179.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $222.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.3% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Mario Vizcarra finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $21.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $24.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will José Williams finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $23.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $28.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

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Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

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Events (1)

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Markets (23)

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will José Luna finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will José Luna finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

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Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will José Luna finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will José Luna finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Related News & Context

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