Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

OK-05 House election: Jena Nelson vote percent

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$5.71K

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OK-05 House election: Jena Nelson vote percent

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$5.71K

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markets · $0.00

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markets · $5.71K

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Volume DistributionTotal: $5.71K

100%

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9 markets tracked

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jena Nelson receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?	Kalshi	96%
Will Jena Nelson receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?	Kalshi	92%
Will Jena Nelson receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?	Kalshi	85%
Will Jena Nelson receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?	Kalshi	70%
Will Jena Nelson receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?	Kalshi	52%
Will Jena Nelson receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?	Kalshi	34%
Will Jena Nelson receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?	Kalshi	18%
Will Jena Nelson receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?	Kalshi	10%
Will Jena Nelson receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

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$5.71K

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Jena Nelson If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jena Nelson in the 2026 OK-05 House election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Jena Nelson ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appea

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** OK-05 House election: Jena Nelson vote percent
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Jena Nelson

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jena Nelson in the 2026 OK-05 House election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Jena Nelson ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appea

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jena Nelson in the 2026 OK-05 House election is 52% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Jena Nelson ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Jena Nelson receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $671
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jena Nelson receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Jena Nelson receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jena Nelson receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jena Nelson receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $174
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jena Nelson receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $34
  DATA: [Yes: 69.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jena Nelson receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Jena Nelson receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Jena Nelson receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

OK-05 House election: Jena Nelson vote percent

Volume$5.71K

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KALSHI

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jena Nelson in the 2026 OK-05 House election is 36% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Jena Nelson ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100

KALSHI

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.5¢No 8.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jena Nelson in the 2026 OK-05 House election is 38% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Jena Nelson ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100

KALSHI

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.5¢No 15.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jena Nelson in the 2026 OK-05 House election is 40% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Jena Nelson ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100

KALSHI

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 69.5¢No 30.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jena Nelson in the 2026 OK-05 House election is 42% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Jena Nelson ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100

KALSHI

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 52.5¢No 47.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jena Nelson in the 2026 OK-05 House election is 44% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Jena Nelson ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100

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OK-05 House election: Jena Nelson vote percent

OK-05 House election: Jena Nelson vote percent

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Will Jena Nelson receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

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Events (1)

OK-05 House election: Jena Nelson vote percent

Markets (9)

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

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Will Jena Nelson receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

OK-05 House election: Jena Nelson vote percent

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

Will Jena Nelson receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 OK-05 House election?

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