Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

Total Volume

$15.24K

Events

Markets

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Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

Vol

$15.24K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $15.24K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.24K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 43 and 48.99 million fish?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
2027 sockeye run forecast: between 43 and 48.99 million fish?	Kalshi	50%
2027 sockeye run forecast: between 37 and 42.99 million fish?	Kalshi	32%
2027 sockeye run forecast: between 49 and 55 million fish?	Kalshi	10%
2027 sockeye run forecast: above 55 million fish?	Kalshi	6%
2027 sockeye run forecast: between 29 and 36.99 million fish?	Kalshi	4%
2027 sockeye run forecast: below 29 million fish?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$15.24K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

2027 season If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is X Y million fish, then the market resolves to Yes. The relevant figure is the Bristol Bay-wide aggregate point estimate shown in the “Forecast” column on the row labeled “Total run.” The separate “Inshore Run” figure will not be used. The market also will not use the forecast range or prediction interval, escapement, harvestable-surplus figures, individual river or district fore

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2027 season

If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is X Y million fish, then the market resolves to Yes. The relevant figure is the Bristol Bay-wide aggregate point estimate shown in the “Forecast” column on the row labeled “Total run.” The separate “Inshore Run” figure will not be used. The market also will not use the forecast range or prediction interval, escapement, harvestable-surplus figures, individual river or district fore

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is above 55 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant figure is the Bristol Bay-wide aggregate point estimate shown in the “Forecast” column on the row labeled “T"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. 2027 sockeye run forecast: above 55 million fish?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. 2027 sockeye run forecast: below 29 million fish?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $164
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. 2027 sockeye run forecast: between 49 and 55 million fish?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. 2027 sockeye run forecast: between 43 and 48.99 million fish?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. 2027 sockeye run forecast: between 37 and 42.99 million fish?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. 2027 sockeye run forecast: between 29 and 36.99 million fish?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $269
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

Volume$15.24K

Markets6

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KALSHI

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 43 and 48.99 million fish?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIWorld

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 43 and 48.99 million fish?

If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is between 43 million and 48.99 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant figure is the Bristol Bay-wide aggregate point estimate shown in the “Forecast” column o

KALSHI

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 37 and 42.99 million fish?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.5¢No 68.5¢

KALSHIWorld

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 37 and 42.99 million fish?

If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is between 37 million and 42.99 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant figure is the Bristol Bay-wide aggregate point estimate shown in the “Forecast” column o

KALSHI

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 49 and 55 million fish?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHIWorld

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 49 and 55 million fish?

If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is between 49 million and 55 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant figure is the Bristol Bay-wide aggregate point estimate shown in the “Forecast” column on t

KALSHI

2027 sockeye run forecast: above 55 million fish?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIWorld

2027 sockeye run forecast: above 55 million fish?

If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is above 55 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant figure is the Bristol Bay-wide aggregate point estimate shown in the “Forecast” column on the row labeled “T

KALSHI

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 29 and 36.99 million fish?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIWorld

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 29 and 36.99 million fish?

If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is between 29 million and 36.99 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The relevant figure is the Bristol Bay-wide aggregate point estimate shown in the “Forecast” column o

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Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

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2027 sockeye run forecast: between 43 and 48.99 million fish?

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Events (1)

Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

Markets (6)

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 43 and 48.99 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 43 and 48.99 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 37 and 42.99 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 37 and 42.99 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 49 and 55 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 49 and 55 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: above 55 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: above 55 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 29 and 36.99 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 29 and 36.99 million fish?

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2027 sockeye run forecast: between 43 and 48.99 million fish?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 43 and 48.99 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 43 and 48.99 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 37 and 42.99 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 37 and 42.99 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 49 and 55 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 49 and 55 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: above 55 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: above 55 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 29 and 36.99 million fish?

2027 sockeye run forecast: between 29 and 36.99 million fish?

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