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Event GroupKALSHIElections

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

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Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

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16 markets tracked

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Tom Begich)

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Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Tom Begich)	Kalshi	93%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Bernadette Wilson)	Kalshi	73%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)	Kalshi	67%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Click Bishop)	Kalshi	45%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Dave Bronson)	Kalshi	43%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Bill Walker)	Kalshi	27%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Treg Taylor)	Kalshi	14%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Lesil McGuire)	Kalshi	7%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Shelley Hughes)	Kalshi	6%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Matt Heilala)	Kalshi	5%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Adam Crum)	Kalshi	4%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Edna DeVries)	Kalshi	2%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Nancy Dahlstrom)	Kalshi	2%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Matthew Claman)	Kalshi	2%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Lisa Murkowski)	Kalshi	1%
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Mary Peltola)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

In 2026 If X advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Dave Bronson advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Dave Bronson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Nancy Dahlstrom)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Matt Heilala)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Treg Taylor)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Tom Begich)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Click Bishop)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Adam Crum)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Edna DeVries)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Shelley Hughes)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.4% (0.0%)]

### 10. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Bernadette Wilson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Matthew Claman)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 12. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Lesil McGuire)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Bill Walker)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Lisa Murkowski)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 16. Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Mary Peltola)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

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KALSHI

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Tom Begich)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.8¢No 7.2¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Tom Begich)

If Tom Begich advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Bernadette Wilson)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.5¢No 27.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Bernadette Wilson)

If Bernadette Wilson advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.5¢No 33.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)

If Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Click Bishop)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.0¢No 55.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Click Bishop)

If Click Bishop advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Dave Bronson)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.0¢No 57.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Dave Bronson)

If Dave Bronson advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

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Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Tom Begich)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

Markets (11)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Tom Begich)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Tom Begich)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Bernadette Wilson)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Bernadette Wilson)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Click Bishop)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Click Bishop)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Dave Bronson)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Dave Bronson)

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Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Tom Begich)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Tom Begich)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Tom Begich)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Bernadette Wilson)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Bernadette Wilson)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Click Bishop)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Click Bishop)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Dave Bronson)

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor? (Dave Bronson)

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