Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Israel launching a major ground offensive in Gaza by the specified deadline. The leading Polymarket contract for an offensive by December 31 is trading at approximately 13 cents, implying just a 13% chance. This price indicates the market views a large-scale invasion within this timeframe as unlikely, though not impossible. The specific contract for an offensive between May 5 and May 13, 2025, shows similarly depressed pricing, reflecting a consensus that imminent escalation is not the base case.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
Three primary factors are suppressing market odds. First, the ongoing, high-intensity phase of the conflict has shifted toward targeted operations and aerial campaigns rather than new, large-scale ground mobilizations. Second, significant international pressure, particularly from the United States, has consistently urged Israel to pursue more surgical tactics to avoid further civilian casualties and regional escalation. Third, the staggering operational costs and military attrition from previous major ground phases in northern and southern Gaza have made Israeli leadership cautious about committing to another expansive operation without clear strategic necessity.
What Could Change These Odds
The odds could rise sharply in response to specific geopolitical triggers. A major rocket barrage from Gaza into Israeli population centers or a high-casualty attack by Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad could force the Israeli government's hand. Similarly, a breakdown in ceasefire or hostage negotiation talks, particularly if mediated by Qatar or Egypt, could reignite calls for a decisive military response. Intelligence indicating a major regrouping of Hamas forces could also shift the calculus. The market will be highly sensitive to official statements from the Israeli War Cabinet or military (IDF) spokespeople hinting at a change in operational posture.
