$223.56K
1
6
$223.56K
1
6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between
Prediction markets estimate a roughly 96% chance that the coldest temperature in New York City on April 15 will be between 68 and 69 degrees Fahrenheit. This means traders see it as almost certain the overnight low won't dip below 68 degrees. The remaining 4% chance is spread across other, cooler temperature ranges.
Two main factors explain this high-confidence forecast. First, the prediction is based on a very strong and specific weather forecast. Major weather models from agencies like the National Weather Service are predicting a significant warm spell for the northeastern U.S. around mid-April, with temperatures potentially 15 to 20 degrees above historical averages.
Second, the timing matters. April 15 is just one day away. Short-term weather forecasts, especially for temperature, are generally reliable. The market is essentially aggregating confidence in the professional meteorological outlook. Historically, a low in the high 60s would be exceptionally warm for mid-April in New York, where average lows are typically in the mid-40s. The market is betting this will be an outlier warm day.
The only key date is the resolution date itself, April 15. The market will resolve based on the official low temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport for that calendar day. A final forecast update on the morning of April 14 or 15 could theoretically shift the odds if models suddenly changed, but such a major reversal is considered extremely unlikely this close to the event.
For short-term weather events, prediction markets like this one are often very accurate. They effectively function as a poll on the consensus of weather models. Their main limitation is that they forecast human interpretation of weather data, not the weather itself. A sudden, unpredicted weather shift could still occur, but the odds of that happening with less than 24 hours' notice are very low, which is why the probability is priced at 96%.
Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certain outcome for New York City's weather on April 15, 2026. On Polymarket, the contract for the lowest temperature falling between 68-69°F is trading at 96 cents, implying a 96% probability. This price indicates traders view a low in that specific two-degree range as almost guaranteed. The other five contracts covering lower temperature ranges, from below 32°F up to 66-67°F, hold a combined probability of just 4%. The market has effectively ruled out an unseasonably cold day.
This extreme confidence is based on reliable meteorological forecasting for a near-term event. The market resolves based on data from LaGuardia Airport, and high-resolution weather models can accurately predict temperatures within a 24-48 hour window. Historical climate data for New York City in mid-April strongly supports the forecast. The average low temperature for April 15 is around 45°F, but the market is betting on a specific, significantly warmer scenario. The 96% price suggests forecast models are in strong agreement, likely predicting a warm air mass or sustained southerly flow that will prevent nighttime cooling. Traders are not guessing. They are aligning with a high-confidence scientific prediction.
With only one day until resolution, the odds are stable. A drastic repricing is now highly improbable. The only remaining catalyst would be a sudden, unforeseen meteorological anomaly that models failed to capture. An extremely rapid cold front or unexpected precipitation could theoretically alter the temperature trajectory, but such events would typically be visible in short-term model updates. Given the volume of $224,000, the market has substantial liquidity committed to this consensus. A last-minute shift would require real-time observational data from the morning of April 15 contradicting all forecasts, which is a remote possibility. The market is effectively waiting for confirmation of a predicted outcome.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the lowest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on April 15, 2026. The market will resolve based on data from Wunderground's historical records for the LaGuardia Airport weather station (KLGA), specifically the minimum temperature recorded throughout that calendar day. Participants are essentially betting on which temperature range will contain the official daily low, as measured by instruments at the airport. This type of market falls under climate prediction, where short-term meteorological forecasts intersect with longer-term seasonal patterns and climate trends. Interest in such markets comes from weather enthusiasts, data analysts, and those looking to apply predictive models to a tangible, time-bound outcome. The specific date of April 15 is notable as it sits in the middle of spring, a season known for high variability in New York City's weather, where late-season cold snaps can clash with early warm spells. The choice of LaGuardia Airport as the measurement site is significant because it is the official weather observation location for New York City used by the National Weather Service, providing a standardized and verifiable data source. The market's resolution depends entirely on a single, objective data point from a trusted public source, making it a clear test of predictive accuracy against both short-term weather models and historical climatological baselines.
LaGuardia Airport has been a primary weather observation site for New York City since the 1940s. Its climate record provides a consistent baseline for evaluating April temperatures. Historically, April in New York City is a transition month where winter's influence rapidly diminishes. The average daily minimum temperature for April 15, based on the 1991-2020 climate normals from NOAA, is approximately 45 degrees Fahrenheit. However, the historical range of extremes is wide. The coldest temperature ever recorded at LaGuardia in April was 24 degrees Fahrenheit on April 1, 1923, and April 6, 1982. For the specific date of April 15, records show notable cold events, such as a low of 32 degrees in 1943 and 33 degrees in 2018. Conversely, warm minimums have also occurred, with lows only dipping into the mid-50s on some April 15ths. This historical volatility is driven by the position of the jet stream. In early to mid-April, the jet stream can still dip far south, allowing Arctic air masses to invade the Northeast, resulting in frost and freeze events. Alternatively, a northward shift can bring warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico. The frequency of these cold outbreaks has shown a slight decreasing trend in recent decades, consistent with broader regional warming, but significant cold snaps remain a feature of New York springs.
Beyond a simple weather bet, this market reflects broader interests in predictive analytics and climate risk. Accurate temperature forecasts for specific dates are economically significant for numerous industries. Agriculture in the surrounding region, particularly for early-blooming fruit crops like peaches and apples, is highly sensitive to spring frosts. A temperature near or below freezing on April 15 could cause millions of dollars in crop damage. Energy markets are also affected, as a colder-than-expected mid-April day increases demand for natural gas for heating, influencing spot prices. For event planners and the tourism sector, the weather on any given spring day impacts attendance and logistics for outdoor activities. On a scientific level, the accuracy of forecasts for a single point like LaGuardia Airport tests the limits of numerical weather prediction models. It also provides a data point for understanding local microclimates within the urban heat island of New York City, where airport temperatures can differ from those in Central Park or other boroughs. The outcome contributes to the long-term climate record, helping climatologists track changes in the timing and intensity of seasonal transitions.
As of the creation of this market, the target date of April 15, 2026, is over two years in the future. No specific operational weather forecast exists for that date. The most relevant guidance comes from the Climate Prediction Center's long-range seasonal outlooks, which currently show no strong signals for the spring 2026 season. Participants must rely on climatological probabilities, analysis of analogous historical years, and the gradual release of seasonal model projections as the date approaches. The market is currently in a state where bets are based almost entirely on historical analysis and very long-range climate model tendencies rather than specific weather patterns.
The official daily minimum temperature is typically recorded during the overnight and early morning hours, just before sunrise. For the climate day running from midnight to midnight, the low is the coldest single reading from the station's instruments during that 24-hour period.
LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) is the official aviation weather station and the primary climate observation site for New York City designated by the National Weather Service. It uses a standardized Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) with consistent instrumentation and location, ensuring a continuous, reliable record for verification.
Yes. Snow cover on the ground can significantly lower nighttime temperatures by reflecting sunlight during the day and promoting radiational cooling at night. A snow event prior to April 15 would increase the chances of a very low minimum temperature.
They are not accurate in a specific sense. Detailed weather patterns cannot be predicted that far ahead. The best available information is climatological averages and long-range seasonal outlooks that indicate whether a season might be tilted warmer or colder than normal, but not daily specifics.
The resolution source, Wunderground, relies on official data. In the event of a prolonged station outage, the National Weather Service has procedures for estimating missing data or using backup observations. The market rules would likely specify contingency plans based on the nearest reliable official data source.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
6 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 96% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/18Qg7s" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Lowest temperature in NYC on April 15?"></iframe>