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Before Feb 15, 2026 If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before X Y Z then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership. An announcement of future resignation counts for resolution even before it takes effect. This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, bein
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Pierre Poilievre resigning as Conservative Party leader before the specified date. With a "Yes" share trading around 31 cents on Kalshi, this implies the market sees approximately a 31% chance of his departure. This pricing suggests such an event is viewed as a distinct minority possibility, but not a remote impossibility. The thin trading volume, however, indicates this is a speculative market with low liquidity, meaning prices could be more sensitive to new information.
The primary factor suppressing the "Yes" probability is Poilievre's strong consolidated position. Since winning the leadership in 2022, he has maintained consistent leads in national polling over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party. There is no significant internal party challenge to his authority, and he is widely viewed as the Conservatives' presumptive candidate for the next federal election. Historically, Canadian opposition leaders rarely resign voluntarily when leading in polls and facing a weakened governing party. The market is essentially pricing in the high stability of his leadership under current political conditions.
The odds would shift dramatically in response to specific, high-impact catalysts. A catastrophic failure in the next federal election, which must be held by October 2025, is the most obvious risk. If Poilievre were to lose an election widely perceived as winnable, internal pressure could force a leadership review. A significant personal scandal or health issue could also trigger a resignation. Furthermore, an unexpected announcement from Poilievre himself would immediately resolve the market to "Yes." Until such a defining event, the market is likely to remain anchored at a relatively low probability, with any major poll shifts or internal caucus discontent serving as potential early indicators of change.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential departure of Pierre Poilievre from his position as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada before February 15, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Poilievre resigns, is removed, announces a future resignation, or loses a leadership election. This includes both voluntary and involuntary exits from the party leadership role. The topic captures a significant political risk event in Canadian politics, as Poilievre has led the Official Opposition since September 2022 and is widely seen as the primary challenger to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government. Interest in this market stems from the high-stakes nature of federal leadership stability, especially as Canada approaches its next scheduled federal election by October 2025. Observers are monitoring Poilievre's performance, internal party dynamics, and external pressures that could precipitate a leadership change, making this a focal point for political analysts and bettors assessing the stability of the Canadian political landscape.
Leadership changes in the Conservative Party of Canada have historically followed electoral defeats or significant internal strife. The party's modern incarnation was formed in 2003 from a merger of the Progressive Conservative and Canadian Alliance parties. Since then, only three leaders have led the party into a general election: Stephen Harper (2004, 2006, 2008, 2011), Andrew Scheer (2019), and Erin O'Toole (2021). Both Scheer and O'Toole resigned their leadership after failing to defeat Justin Trudeau's Liberals, in 2020 and 2022 respectively, demonstrating the party's low tolerance for perceived electoral failure. The party constitution mandates a leadership review vote at the first national convention following a general election where the party does not form government. Poilievre faced his first such review at the 2023 convention in Quebec City, where he received a 84% approval rating, a strong but not unanimous endorsement. Historical precedent suggests that sustained poor polling or a loss in the next federal election would create substantial pressure for a leadership change.
The stability of the Conservative Party leadership has direct implications for Canada's political direction and governance. A leadership change would trigger a potentially divisive internal race, reshaping policy platforms and public messaging during a critical period. This could affect investor confidence and economic policy certainty, as markets anticipate potential changes in fiscal, energy, and regulatory approaches. For Canadian voters, a leadership crisis in the Official Opposition could diminish effective parliamentary scrutiny of the government, altering the dynamics of accountability and the quality of national debate on key issues like housing, inflation, and healthcare. The outcome influences the strategic choices of other federal parties and could accelerate or delay the timing of the next election.
As of early 2025, Pierre Poilievre remains the Leader of the Conservative Party and the Official Opposition. The party has consistently led in national public opinion polls for over a year, positioning Poilievre as the favorite to become the next Prime Minister. No public moves by party members or officials suggest an imminent challenge to his leadership. The political focus is on the upcoming federal election, expected in 2025, which will serve as the ultimate test of his leadership. The next formal leadership review is scheduled for the party's national convention following that election.
He can be removed through a formal leadership review vote at a party convention, where a majority vote against him would trigger a new leadership race. Alternatively, he could resign voluntarily or be subject to a vote by the Conservative caucus in the House of Commons, though the latter is a less defined process in the party constitution.
If the Conservatives fail to win the next election, the party constitution requires a leadership review at the first national convention afterward. Historical precedent suggests significant pressure would mount for Poilievre to resign, similar to the fates of Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole after electoral losses.
As of early 2025, Pierre Poilievre has not faced a formal leadership challenge. His first mandatory review in September 2023 resulted in an 84% approval rating, which is generally interpreted as a strong mandate from the party membership.
A replacement would be chosen through a national leadership election open to party members. Potential candidates could include current Deputy Leader Melissa Lantsman, prominent MPs like Michael Chong or Michelle Rempel Garner, or provincial figures, depending on the timing and circumstances of the vacancy.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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2 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Pierre Poilievre resign as the conservative party leader before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 31% |
Will Pierre Poilievre resign as the conservative party leader before Feb 15, 2026? | Kalshi | 6% |
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