Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Midterms: Democratic share of men's vote?

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$22.52

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Midterms: Democratic share of men's vote?

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$22.52

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $22.52

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $22.52

100%

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7 markets tracked

Will Democrats receive above 40% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democrats receive above 40% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	94%
Will Democrats receive above 42% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	88%
Will Democrats receive above 44% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	81%
Will Democrats receive above 46% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	60%
Will Democrats receive above 48% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	39%
Will Democrats receive above 50% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	18%
Will Democrats receive above 52% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	9%

AI Analysis

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94%

Top Probability

$22.52

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About This Event

On Nov 6, 2026 If the Democratic share of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic, or Dem., column of the aggregate Men, or Male, row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time. If it remains unavailable

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Midterms: Democratic share of men's vote?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 6, 2026

If the Democratic share of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic, or Dem., column of the aggregate Men, or Male, row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time. If it remains unavailable

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Democratic share of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 52%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the aggregate Men (or Male) row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Democrats receive above 52% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Democrats receive above 50% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $23
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Democrats receive above 48% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Democrats receive above 46% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Democrats receive above 44% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Democrats receive above 42% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 87.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Democrats receive above 40% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Midterms: Democratic share of men's vote?

Volume$22.52

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KALSHI

Will Democrats receive above 40% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats receive above 40% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Democratic share of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 40%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the aggregate Men (or Male) row in the national U.S. House exit poll table.

KALSHI

Will Democrats receive above 42% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.5¢No 12.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats receive above 42% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Democratic share of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 42%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the aggregate Men (or Male) row in the national U.S. House exit poll table.

KALSHI

Will Democrats receive above 44% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.5¢No 19.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats receive above 44% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Democratic share of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 44%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the aggregate Men (or Male) row in the national U.S. House exit poll table.

KALSHI

Will Democrats receive above 46% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats receive above 46% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Democratic share of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 46%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the aggregate Men (or Male) row in the national U.S. House exit poll table.

KALSHI

Will Democrats receive above 48% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.5¢No 61.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats receive above 48% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Democratic share of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 48%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Democratic (or Dem.) column of the aggregate Men (or Male) row in the national U.S. House exit poll table.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/1BHDv8" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Midterms: Democratic share of men's vote?"></iframe>

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Midterms: Democratic share of men's vote?

Midterms: Democratic share of men's vote?

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Will Democrats receive above 40% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Events (1)

Midterms: Democratic share of men's vote?

Markets (7)

Will Democrats receive above 40% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 40% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 42% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 42% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 44% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 44% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 46% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 46% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 48% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 48% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Will Democrats receive above 40% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Midterms: Democratic share of men's vote?

Will Democrats receive above 40% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 40% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 42% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 42% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 44% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 44% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 46% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 46% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 48% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Democrats receive above 48% of the vote among men in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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