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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?

Name: Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?
End: 2026-03-29T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$10.63

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Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?

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Polymarket

markets · $10.63

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $10.63

100%

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Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?

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Market	Platform	Price
Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?	Poly	51%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 29, 2026 (0 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.

Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat proje

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 202"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11
* **Total Liquidity:** $63
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 29, 2026): Vol $11
  DATA: [Up: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [Down: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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51¢

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Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?

Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?

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Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?

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Events (1)