$6.85K
1
9
$6.85K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before Jan 1, 2027 If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries X before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal bound
Prediction markets currently assign a very high probability to Donald Trump visiting New York before 2027. The leading contract on Kalshi trades at 92%, implying the market views a visit as nearly certain. This price suggests traders see only minimal risk of this event not occurring, such as from unforeseen health or legal restrictions. Across nine related state-visit markets, total volume is approximately $7,000, indicating relatively thin but focused liquidity.
Two primary factors justify the market's high confidence. First, New York is Donald Trump's long-time home base and the location of his core business and personal assets, including Trump Tower. His post-presidency residence in Florida does not eliminate deep-rooted professional and personal ties to New York, making a return visit for business, legal proceedings, or personal reasons highly probable. Second, historical precedent is strong. As a high-profile figure continuously engaged in political activity, legal battles, and campaign fundraising, Trump has frequently traveled to key states. New York, as a major media, financial, and legal hub, is a natural destination for such activities.
The primary risks that could lower the current 92% probability are significant logistical or legal constraints. An unexpected health issue or a specific court order restricting travel to the jurisdiction could temporarily prevent a visit. Furthermore, while the market timeframe extends to January 2027, if Trump were to secure the presidency in the 2024 election, official presidential travel schedules might deprioritize New York in favor of swing states or international destinations, potentially delaying a visit within the contract period. However, given the extended timeline and his established patterns, the market prices these risks as low-probability events.
This specific contract is trading exclusively on Kalshi. The lack of a comparable market on platforms like Polymarket prevents a direct cross-platform price comparison and arbitrage analysis. The thin liquidity across the suite of state-visit markets suggests these are niche speculative instruments, likely driven by a small pool of traders focusing on political event contracts rather than broad market participation.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the future travel patterns of former President Donald Trump, specifically which U.S. states he will physically visit before January 1, 2027. The market resolves to 'Yes' for any state where Trump has been physically present within its geographic boundaries, excluding flyovers, airport layovers without leaving the airport, virtual appearances, or presence solely within embassy grounds. This topic has gained significant attention due to Trump's status as the presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee and his historically active post-presidency travel schedule, which blends political campaigning, legal proceedings, business operations, and personal engagements. The outcome is seen as a proxy indicator of his political strategy, resource allocation, and geographic priorities during a critical period that includes the 2024 election and its aftermath. Interest stems from political analysts, bettors, and observers seeking to understand the evolving American political landscape through the lens of a dominant figure's movements.
Donald Trump's travel patterns as a candidate and president provide essential context. During the 2016 campaign, he held rallies in 44 states, with a heavy focus on traditional battlegrounds like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. As president, his travel was often centered on states he won in 2016, with frequent trips to Florida (Mar-a-Lago), New Jersey (Bedminster), and Virginia (Trump National Golf Club). His post-presidency travel began immediately after leaving office in January 2021, with his first major rally occurring in Wellington, Ohio, on June 26, 2021. The 2022 midterm election cycle saw him actively campaign for endorsed candidates, holding events in states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. This established a precedent of using travel to support political allies, test campaign themes, and maintain media visibility. The launch of his 2024 campaign in November 2022 formalized this travel into a structured political operation. Historically, his travel has avoided states considered solidly Democratic, like California and New York, except for necessary legal or business reasons, a pattern likely to continue.
The pattern of Trump's state visits serves as a real-time map of American political priorities. It signals which states the Trump campaign and the broader Republican Party view as essential for electoral victory, influencing where financial resources, surrogate visits, and ground organization efforts are concentrated. This has direct economic implications for host cities and states, as large rallies generate local revenue for security, venues, and hospitality, while also consuming municipal resources. Furthermore, his travel choices can impact down-ballot races, energizing or suppressing local voter turnout and shaping media narratives about regional political strength. For markets and analysts, tracking these visits provides a quantifiable metric of campaign intensity and strategic focus, offering insights that go beyond polling and rhetoric.
As of mid-2024, Trump's travel is dominated by the general election campaign and ongoing legal obligations. He has already secured the Republican nomination and is actively holding rallies in swing states like Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. His required attendance at his New York criminal trial in spring 2024 constituted a major, non-campaign-driven state visit. Upcoming fixed events include the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in July 2024. The campaign has signaled a focus on expanding the map, with potential visits to traditionally Democratic-leaning states like Virginia and Minnesota, which could broaden the range of states visited before 2027.
Yes. The market resolution depends solely on physical presence within the state's boundaries. A private stay at Mar-a-Lago in Florida or Trump National Golf Club in Virginia counts as a visit, regardless of whether it is a public event.
The market deadline is January 1, 2027. Travel for any reason, including post-election campaigning, business, or personal trips, before that date counts. The outcome of the 2024 election may change the purpose of his travel but not the market's rules.
Washington, D.C., is not a state. The market specifically resolves on U.S. states. A visit to the District of Columbia would not result in a 'Yes' resolution for any state market.
Proof typically requires credible, verifiable reporting from major news organizations, official campaign schedules, or photographic/video evidence confirming his physical presence in the state on a specific date. Social media posts from his accounts may also serve as evidence.
While highly probable, it is not absolutely guaranteed. Unforeseen circumstances like health issues, security threats, or a decision to run a radically different campaign could alter plans. However, historical precedent and current strategy make visits to key battlegrounds extremely likely.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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9 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Donald Trump visit New York before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 92% |
Will Donald Trump visit Ohio before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 84% |
Will Donald Trump visit Georgia before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 81% |
Will Donald Trump visit Texas before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 76% |
Will Donald Trump visit California before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 71% |
Will Donald Trump visit Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, or Vermont before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 66% |
Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 52% |
Will Donald Trump visit Colorado before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 44% |
Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 39% |
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