Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Name: Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election
End: 2025-11-24T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$342.01K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Vol

$342.01K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $342.01K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $342.01K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Poly	16%
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Poly	15%
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

16%

Top Probability

$342.01K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 24, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 
"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $342.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $115.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.98)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 24, 2025): Vol $91.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 24, 2025): Vol $20.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 24, 2025): Vol $18.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 24, 2025): Vol $16.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 24, 2025): Vol $17.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 24, 2025): Vol $59.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 24, 2025): Vol $18.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 24, 2025): Vol $16.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 24, 2025): Vol $26.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 24, 2025): Vol $22.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 24, 2025): Vol $14.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 24, 2025): Vol $19.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics