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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the CBB game between Seattle Redhawks and Loyola Marymount Lions on February 28 at 9:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction markets give the Loyola Marymount Lions a 65% chance to beat the Seattle Redhawks in their college basketball game on February 28. In simpler terms, traders collectively believe there is roughly a 2 in 3 chance Loyola Marymount wins. This shows a clear, but not overwhelming, confidence in the Lions.
Two main factors are likely shaping these odds. First, the game is being played at Loyola Marymount in Los Angeles, giving them home-court advantage. Home teams in college basketball win more often than not. Second, the teams' recent performance provides context. Loyola Marymount has a stronger overall record this season. They also won the first matchup between these two teams in January, beating Seattle by 10 points on the road. That previous result gives traders a concrete reason to favor the Lions again, even if a rematch can always surprise.
The key event is the game itself, tipping off at 9:00 PM Eastern Time on Wednesday, February 28. The only developments that could shift predictions before then would be last-minute news, like a key player being ruled out due to injury or illness. Since the market resolves based on the final result, the final score is the only signal that matters.
For regular-season college basketball games, prediction markets are generally reliable but not perfect. They efficiently combine public information like team records, location, and recent news into a single probability. However, the nature of sports means upsets happen. A 65% probability still implies a 35% chance of a Seattle win. Markets for individual games can be swayed by public betting sentiment, so they are a good snapshot of collective expectation, not a guaranteed outcome.
Prediction markets on Polymarket are pricing a Seattle Redhawks victory at approximately 80 cents, implying an 80% probability. This is a strong consensus, indicating bettors see Seattle as the clear favorite. The corresponding 20-cent price for a Loyola Marymount Lions win translates to just a 20% chance. With $169,000 in total volume, this market has sufficient liquidity for these odds to be considered a meaningful signal of collective expectation, not just speculative noise.
The heavy favoritism for Seattle is rooted in their significant performance advantage this season. Entering this matchup, Seattle holds a 17-10 record, while Loyola Marymount is 11-17. More specifically, Seattle's offense has been more efficient, averaging over 75 points per game compared to LMU's 68. Historical context also matters. Seattle won the previous meeting between these two teams on January 25th by a decisive 20-point margin, 81-61. That recent result directly shapes market confidence, making a repeat outcome seem probable. The market is effectively pricing in a continuation of established team strength and head-to-head dominance.
The primary risk to the consensus is an outlier shooting performance from Loyola Marymount, particularly from beyond the arc where games can become volatile. LMU's defense has struggled, but their offense occasionally finds rhythm. An early surge from the Lions could shift live betting odds dramatically, even if the pre-game market remains static. Player availability due to last-minute injuries or illness, always a factor in college basketball, is another variable not fully priced into a market resolved hours before tip-off. The 20% probability for LMU accounts for these possibilities, but a major pre-game news development could see that number adjust.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable market on Kalshi prevents a cross-platform arbitrage analysis. The concentrated liquidity on Polymarket suggests its odds are the primary benchmark for this event. The substantial volume indicates participants find the 80/20 probability split credible based on the available team data and recent history.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
$168.86K
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This prediction market focuses on the outcome of a college basketball game scheduled for February 28 at 9:00 PM Eastern Time. The matchup features the Seattle University Redhawks and the Loyola Marymount University Lions, both members of the West Coast Conference (WCC). The market allows participants to wager on which team will win the contest. If the game is postponed, the market remains active until the game is played. If the game is canceled without being rescheduled, the market resolves with a 50-50 split, meaning all shares are settled as if the event ended in a tie. This specific late-season conference game holds significance for both teams' positioning within the WCC standings and their potential seeding for the conference tournament. The Redhawks and Lions have developed a competitive rivalry in recent years, often playing close games that attract attention from fans and bettors alike. Interest in this market stems from the game's implications for postseason play, the historical competitiveness between the programs, and the performance of key individual players. The 9:00 PM ET start time also makes it a featured late game for national audiences following college basketball.
Seattle University and Loyola Marymount University have been conference rivals since Seattle rejoined the WCC for the 2012-13 season. Their basketball histories, however, extend further back. Loyola Marymount's program gained national fame in the late 1980s and early 1990s under coach Paul Westhead, employing a revolutionary fast-break offense known as 'The System.' That era peaked with an Elite Eight run in the 1990 NCAA Tournament. Seattle University, led by the legendary Elgin Baylor, made its own historic mark by reaching the NCAA Championship game in 1958, where it lost to Kentucky. The modern rivalry between the Redhawks and Lions has been characterized by competitive balance. In the 2022-23 season, the teams split their two regular-season meetings, with each winning on their home court. The series often features close scores, with several games in the past five years decided by single digits or in overtime. This pattern of tight contests adds an element of unpredictability that attracts attention to each new matchup.
The outcome of this game has direct consequences for the West Coast Conference tournament seeding. Tournament seeding determines matchups and can significantly impact a team's path to the conference championship and an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. For programs like Seattle and LMU, which typically operate outside the national spotlight dominated by Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, a strong finish to the regular season is vital for building momentum and potentially securing a favorable draw in the WCC tournament. Beyond the immediate teams, the game matters to the broader WCC ecosystem. Competitive games between the conference's middle-tier teams enhance the league's overall reputation for depth and parity. This can influence media coverage, recruiting battles for regional talent, and fan engagement across the conference. For the universities, success in high-profile late-season games can boost student morale, alumni donations, and general campus spirit surrounding the athletics program.
As of late February 2024, both teams are in the middle of the West Coast Conference standings, fighting for position ahead of the conference tournament. The specific records and rankings will be updated as the February 28 game approaches. Recent form will be a major talking point, including how each team performed in their games immediately preceding this matchup. Injury reports for key players like Cameron Tyson or Dominick Harris will be closely monitored, as their availability could shift the betting lines and prediction market activity significantly. The latest point spread and over/under totals from major sportsbooks will also reflect the perceived competitiveness of the game.
The game will be broadcast on a network within the WCC's media package, which includes CBS Sports Network and regional sports networks like ROOT Sports. The specific channel assignment is typically confirmed a week before the game.
The game on February 28, 2024, is scheduled to be played at the Gersten Pavilion in Los Angeles, California. This is the home court of the Loyola Marymount Lions.
The betting favorite is determined by sportsbooks closer to game day and depends on current team records, player health, and recent performance. Historically, games between these teams are close, so the point spread is often small.
According to the prediction market rules, if the game is postponed, the market will remain open for trading until the game is officially completed. The market does not resolve until a final result is recorded.
Games are streamed online through the platforms of the broadcasting network, such as the CBS Sports app or the ESPN app, depending on the rights for that specific game. A cable or streaming TV subscription that includes the channel is usually required.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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