US bank failure by February 28? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

US bank failure by February 28?

Name: US bank failure by February 28?
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$75.96K

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US bank failure by February 28?

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Polymarket

markets · $75.96K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $75.96K

100%

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1 market tracked

US bank failure by February 28?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
US bank failure by February 28?	Poly	100%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$75.96K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain op

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US bank failure by February 28?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 28, 2026 (6 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain op

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $76.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.7K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.49)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US bank failure by February 28?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $76.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

5d 15h remaining

Feb 28, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

100¢

Polymarket

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US bank failure by February 28?

US bank failure by February 28?

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US bank failure by February 28?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)