GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

How much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026?

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How much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026?

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5 markets tracked

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?	Kalshi	82%
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in July 2026?	Kalshi	55%
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?	Kalshi	50%
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in July 2026?	Kalshi	45%
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in July 2026?	Kalshi	30%

AI Analysis

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82%

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About This Event

In Jul 2026 If the, single-decimal, month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above X in July 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Jul 2026

If the, single-decimal, month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above X in July 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the expected release of the data. It will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after the expected release of the data.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.4% in July 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

How much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.0¢No 18.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?

If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.1% in July 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the

KALSHI

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 55.5¢No 44.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in July 2026?

If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.2% in July 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the

KALSHI

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?

If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.0% in July 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the

KALSHI

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.0¢No 55.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in July 2026?

If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.4% in July 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the

KALSHI

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.0¢No 70.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in July 2026?

If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.3% in July 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the

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How much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026?

How much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026?

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Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?

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Events (1)

How much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026?

Markets (5)

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in July 2026?

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Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How much will core PCE increase in Jul 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.2% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in July 2026?

Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in July 2026?

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