Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next Premier of Victoria

Name: Next Premier of Victoria
End: 2026-11-29T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$25.85K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Premier of Victoria

Vol

$25.85K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $25.85K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.85K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	64%
Will Ben Carroll be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	16%
Will Danny O'Brien be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	11%
Will Warren Pickering be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	7%
Will David Southwick be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	4%
Will Jacinta Allan be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	1%
Will Gabrielle Williams be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	0%
Will Sonya Kilkenny be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	0%
Will Sam Groth be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	0%
Will James Newbury be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	0%
Will Emma Kealy be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	0%
Will Ellen Sandell be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	0%
Will Steve Dimopoulos be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	0%
Will Jaclyn Symes be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	0%
Will Brad Battin be the next Premier of Victoria?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

64%

Top Probability

$25.85K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prem

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Premier of Victoria
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 29, 2026 (49 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prem

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $25.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $230.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.11)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ben Carroll be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Danny O'Brien be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ellen Sandell be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Gabrielle Williams be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $345
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jacinta Allan be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $542
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jaclyn Symes be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Sonya Kilkenny be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $399
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Steve Dimopoulos be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $378
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will David Southwick be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $353
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Brad Battin be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Sam Groth be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will James Newbury be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Emma Kealy be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Warren Pickering be the next Premier of Victoria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics