$218.45
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4
$218.45
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4
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. An
Prediction markets currently price Jeremy Moss as having a 45% chance to win the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 11th Congressional District. This "Uncertain" rating indicates the market sees no clear frontrunner, essentially viewing the primary as a coin flip. The thin trading volume, with $0K across four markets, means this probability is highly preliminary and based on minimal committed capital. The market will resolve on the primary date, August 4, 2026.
The primary factor is the political profile of Jeremy Moss himself. As Michigan's current Secretary of State, Moss holds a prominent statewide office, giving him significant name recognition and a proven electoral track record in the Democratic base. This established political capital makes him a logical and formidable potential candidate for a House seat. The second factor is the open-seat nature of this race, as incumbent Representative Haley Stevens is term-limited and cannot run for re-election in 2026. This creates a vacuum that often attracts multiple credible candidates, which is reflected in the market's lack of a decisive favorite. Moss's 45% price suggests he is the most discussed potential entrant, but far from a shoo-in.
The odds will remain volatile and sensitive to official declarations of candidacy. The most significant catalyst will be if and when Jeremy Moss officially announces his campaign. A formal launch would likely cause his probability to surge. Conversely, if he publicly declines to run, the market would reset around other potential candidates, such as state legislators or local officials from the Oakland County-based district. Furthermore, the entry of another high-profile Democrat with strong local ties could quickly depress Moss's odds. Given the primary is over 200 days away, the current thin liquidity means any credible news about candidate recruitment will cause sharp price movements.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on determining which candidate will secure the Democratic Party nomination for Michigan's 11th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026, and the market will resolve based on the official nominee as confirmed by Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org. Michigan's 11th district, covering parts of Oakland and Wayne counties including communities like Troy, Birmingham, and Royal Oak, has become a critical swing district in recent election cycles, making its Democratic primary a significant indicator of the party's direction in suburban America. The seat is currently held by Democrat Haley Stevens, who first won it in 2018. The 2026 primary will be particularly consequential as it could feature either an incumbent defending their seat or an open contest if Stevens chooses not to seek re-election or pursues another office. Political observers are closely watching this district as a bellwether for Democratic strength in suburban areas that have shown increased volatility since 2016. The outcome will influence control of the U.S. House of Representatives and signal which faction of the Democratic Party holds sway in competitive districts.
Michigan's 11th congressional district has undergone significant transformation since its creation after the 2010 census. Originally represented by Republican Kerry Bentivolio from 2013 to 2015, then by Republican David Trott from 2015 to 2019, the district shifted dramatically toward Democrats during the Trump presidency. This change culminated in Haley Stevens flipping the seat in 2018 as part of the 'blue wave' that gave Democrats control of the House. The 2020 redistricting process, conducted by Michigan's independent citizen commission, substantially altered the district's boundaries ahead of the 2022 elections. The new map placed incumbent Democrats Haley Stevens and Andy Levin in the same district, forcing a member-versus-member primary that Stevens won decisively with 60% of the vote to Levin's 40%. This 2022 primary represented a significant showdown between the moderate and progressive wings of the Michigan Democratic Party, with Stevens' victory cementing the district's moderate Democratic orientation. Historically, the area has been represented by both parties, with Republican Thaddeus McCotter holding the seat from 2003 to 2012 before the district's political evolution began. The 2026 primary will continue this pattern of intraparty competition that has characterized the district since redistricting.
The outcome of the MI-11 Democratic primary will have significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. As a swing district that Democrats must hold to maintain or regain majority control, the nominee's electability in the general election is crucial for national Democratic strategy. The primary also serves as a battleground for the ideological direction of the Democratic Party in competitive suburban districts, testing whether progressive or moderate candidates are better positioned to win in areas that determine control of Congress. Beyond electoral politics, the primary winner will influence policy priorities for a district containing major automotive and technology employers, including the North American headquarters of Stellantis and numerous tech companies in the Automation Alley corridor. The representative's approach to issues like electric vehicle transition, manufacturing policy, and technology regulation will directly affect thousands of district residents employed in these industries. Additionally, the campaign will test Democratic messaging and coalition-building in diverse suburban communities that include significant Arab-American, Asian-American, and Jewish populations with distinct policy concerns.
As of late 2024, Representative Haley Stevens has not formally announced her intentions for the 2026 election cycle. She continues to serve in Congress and has been raising funds through her campaign committee, with over $1.2 million cash on hand reported in her most recent FEC filing. No major Democratic challengers have declared candidacy, though political operatives in Michigan report early conversations among potential candidates should Stevens decide not to seek re-election. The Michigan Democratic Party is focused on the 2024 presidential and Senate elections, with formal planning for 2026 congressional primaries expected to begin in early 2025. Redistricting litigation that could affect district boundaries appears settled, with the current map expected to remain through 2026.
The Democratic primary for Michigan's 11th congressional district is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This is the standard date for Michigan's statewide primary elections in even-numbered years.
The current U.S. Representative for Michigan's 11th congressional district is Democrat Haley Stevens, who was first elected in 2018. She previously served in the Obama administration as Chief of Staff to the Presidential Task Force on the Auto Industry.
Michigan's 11th district includes parts of Oakland and Wayne counties, encompassing communities such as Troy, Birmingham, Bloomfield Township, Royal Oak, Clawson, and portions of West Bloomfield and Rochester Hills. The district contains affluent suburbs north of Detroit.
The 2020 redistricting process, conducted by Michigan's independent citizen commission, significantly altered the 11th district's boundaries. The new map placed two incumbent Democratic representatives, Haley Stevens and Andy Levin, in the same district, leading to their 2022 primary contest that Stevens won.
Michigan's 11th district is considered a swing district with a slight Democratic lean. The Cook Political Report rates it as D+1, meaning it votes about 1 percentage point more Democratic than the national average in presidential elections.
Competitive primaries in this district require substantial fundraising. The 2022 primary between Haley Stevens and Andy Levin saw combined spending of $6.7 million, with both candidates raising over $3 million each, indicating the financial resources needed to compete effectively.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 46% |
| Poly | 44% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 4% |
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