This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 election for South Carolina's 5th Congressional District (SC-05) seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate after all 2026 House races are officially called by designated resolution sources. The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026, as part of the national midterm elections. South Carolina's 5th District covers a significant portion of the north-central part of the state, including all of Cherokee, Chester, Fairfield, Kershaw, Lancaster, Lee, and Union counties, along with parts of Newberry, Spartanburg, and Sumter counties. The district's political composition has shifted over time, making it a competitive area worth watching. Interest in this market stems from its potential to serve as a bellwether for national political trends during the midterms, which occur halfway through a presidential term and often reflect public sentiment toward the sitting administration. The outcome could influence the balance of power in the House, where even a single seat can determine which party controls the chamber and sets the legislative agenda. Analysts monitor districts like SC-05 for clues about voter behavior in swing regions, especially following redistricting cycles and evolving demographic patterns. The 2026 race will also test the durability of recent electoral trends in South Carolina, a state that has become increasingly Republican at the federal level but retains pockets of Democratic support.

Historical Context

South Carolina's 5th Congressional District has a complex political history. For most of the 20th century, it was a Democratic stronghold, part of the 'Solid South' that consistently elected conservative Democrats. This changed in the latter decades of the century as realignment took hold. The district elected its first Republican representative in modern history in 1994, when John M. Spratt Jr., a Democrat who had served since 1983, was defeated by Republican Bob Inglis. Inglis held the seat until 1998, then regained it in 2004 after Spratt won it back in 1998. The modern era of Republican control began in 2010, when Mick Mulvaney, a Republican, defeated Spratt. Mulvaney held the seat until 2017, when he resigned to become Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Donald Trump. The subsequent special election in June 2017 was won by Ralph Norman, who has held the seat since. The district's boundaries were last redrawn in 2022 following the 2020 census. The new map, enacted by the Republican-controlled state legislature, made the district slightly more Republican. According to analysis from FiveThirtyEight, the redistricted version of SC-05 had a partisan lean of R+16, meaning it performed about 16 percentage points more Republican than the nation as a whole in recent elections. This historical shift from competitive to reliably Republican, then back to a somewhat less secure margin, frames the strategic calculations for both parties heading into 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions