This prediction market asks whether Daniel Noboa will cease to be President of Ecuador before June 30, 2024. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Noboa resigns, is removed from office, or otherwise leaves the presidency for any period before that date, based on official announcements. Daniel Noboa, a 35-year-old businessman and former legislator, became Ecuador's youngest-ever president in November 2023, winning a snap election triggered by President Guillermo Lasso's impeachment and subsequent dissolution of the National Assembly. Noboa inherited a nation facing severe security crises, with drug trafficking violence spilling into public life and a struggling economy. His term is constitutionally limited to only 18 months, serving out the remainder of Lasso's original mandate, with general elections scheduled for 2025. Interest in this market stems from Ecuador's volatile political environment, where recent presidents have faced impeachment attempts, mass protests, and early exits. Noboa's administration has pursued an aggressive security policy, including a state of emergency and controversial measures like a value-added tax increase, testing his political support. Observers are watching whether institutional pressures, security challenges, or public discontent could force an early departure before his term naturally concludes.

Historical Context

Ecuador has experienced significant presidential instability over the past two decades. Three elected presidents failed to complete their terms in the 1990s and 2000s. More recently, the precedent for early presidential departure was set in 2023. President Guillermo Lasso, facing an impeachment trial in the National Assembly for alleged embezzlement, preemptively dissolved the legislature on May 17, 2023, using a constitutional provision. This triggered snap elections for both the presidency and a new assembly, cutting his own term short. The 2023 election cycle was marked by extreme violence, including the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in August. This context of institutional conflict, corruption allegations, and criminal violence forms the immediate backdrop for Daniel Noboa's abbreviated term. The 2008 Constitution, which introduced the 'muerte cruzada' mechanism used by Lasso, was designed to resolve deadlocks but has also created a pathway for shortened presidencies. Noboa's 18-month term is itself a historical anomaly, being the shortest constitutional presidential term in modern Ecuadorian history.

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