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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30?

Name: Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.78K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30?

Vol

$1.78K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.78K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.78K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$1.78K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Daniel Noboa ceases to be President of Ecuador for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (Ecuador Time, GMT-5). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Daniel Noboa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Da

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Daniel Noboa ceases to be President of Ecuador for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (Ecuador Time, GMT-5). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Daniel Noboa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Da

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Daniel Noboa ceases to be President of Ecuador for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (Ecuador Time, GMT-5). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Daniel Noboa's resignation/removal before this market's en"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.15)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics