Name: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March? | PredictPedia

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7 markets tracked

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?	Poly	93%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?	Poly	6%
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?	Poly	1%
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?	Poly	1%
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?	Poly	0%
Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?	Poly	0%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (2 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this mark

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portw"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.25M
* **Total Liquidity:** $73.6K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 16.99)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $210.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $76.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $225.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $105.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $263.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $285.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $83.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

1d 11h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

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14¢

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Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?

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Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

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Events (1)

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?

Markets (7)

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

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