Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Iowa Secretary of State winner?

Total Volume

$7.17K

Events

Markets

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Iowa Secretary of State winner?

Vol

$7.17K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $7.17K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.17K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Paul D. Pate win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Paul D. Pate win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?	Kalshi	88%
Will Ryan Peterman win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

88%

Top Probability

$7.17K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

in 2026 If X wins the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iowa Secretary of State winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2026

If X wins the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Ryan Peterman wins the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ryan Peterman win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Paul D. Pate win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Iowa Secretary of State winner?

Volume$7.17K

Markets2

2 of 2

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KALSHI

Will Paul D. Pate win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Paul D. Pate win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

If Paul D. Pate wins the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Ryan Peterman win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Ryan Peterman win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

If Ryan Peterman wins the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

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50¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/1a6YMU" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Iowa Secretary of State winner?"></iframe>

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Iowa Secretary of State winner?

Iowa Secretary of State winner?

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Will Paul D. Pate win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Iowa Secretary of State winner?

Markets (2)

Will Paul D. Pate win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

Will Paul D. Pate win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

Will Ryan Peterman win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

Will Ryan Peterman win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

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Will Paul D. Pate win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Iowa Secretary of State winner?

Will Paul D. Pate win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

Will Paul D. Pate win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

Will Ryan Peterman win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

Will Ryan Peterman win the 2026 Iowa Secretary of State election?

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