What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Traders on prediction markets currently give a roughly 2 in 5 chance that the U.S. and Denmark will sign any new agreement about Greenland before the end of 2026. With odds at 39%, the collective view is that a deal is possible but not likely. This reflects a significant amount of skepticism that such a complex diplomatic goal can be achieved within the given timeframe.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

The low probability stems from a mix of political history and current realities. First, the idea gained notoriety in 2019 when then-President Donald Trump publicly confirmed he had discussed purchasing Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory. Denmark’s government flatly rejected the idea, calling it "absurd." This created a diplomatic rift and established Greenland as a sensitive topic between the allies.

Second, while the market question is broad enough to cover any agreement, not just a sale, the underlying tensions remain. Greenland’s government and population are deeply protective of their autonomy and resources. Any new pact perceived to infringe on that would face strong local opposition. Finally, the outcome depends heavily on the results of the 2024 U.S. election and the political will of the next administration to prioritize this specific issue, adding another layer of uncertainty.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The main event that will shape these odds is the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. A second Trump administration might revive the concept, while a different outcome could see it shelved indefinitely. Beyond that, watch for any official statements from the Danish Foreign Ministry or the Government of Greenland. Formal negotiations would need to be announced, and any such news would likely cause the prediction market probability to shift.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets are generally useful for aggregating informed views on political outcomes, but this is a particularly niche question. There is little historical precedent for forecasting the success of specific, unusual diplomatic proposals like this one. The low trading volume also suggests this is a speculative market driven by a smaller group of traders. While the odds are a real-time snapshot of collective belief, they should be seen as a gauge of sentiment rather than a firm forecast, given the unique and long-term nature of the event.