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Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

U.S. oil production per day in 2026

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U.S. oil production per day in 2026

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4 markets tracked

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.00M bpd)

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.00M bpd)	Kalshi	91%
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.10M bpd)	Kalshi	65%
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.25M bpd)	Kalshi	32%
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.40M bpd)	Kalshi	21%

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91%

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About This Event

In 2026 If the U.S. produces at least X million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** U.S. oil production per day in 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the U.S. produces at least X million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the U.S. produces at least 14.40 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd. Early close condition: This market will close and expire ear"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.40M bpd)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.25M bpd)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.10M bpd)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.00M bpd)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

U.S. oil production per day in 2026

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KALSHI

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.00M bpd)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHIOther

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.00M bpd)

If the U.S. produces at least 14.00 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd. Early close condition: This market will close and expire ear

KALSHI

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.10M bpd)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.0¢No 35.0¢

KALSHIOther

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.10M bpd)

If the U.S. produces at least 14.10 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd. Early close condition: This market will close and expire ear

KALSHI

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.25M bpd)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.5¢No 67.5¢

KALSHIOther

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.25M bpd)

If the U.S. produces at least 14.25 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd. Early close condition: This market will close and expire ear

KALSHI

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.40M bpd)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIOther

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.40M bpd)

If the U.S. produces at least 14.40 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd. Early close condition: This market will close and expire ear

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How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.00M bpd)

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Educational Context

Events (1)

U.S. oil production per day in 2026

Markets (4)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.00M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.00M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.10M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.10M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.25M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.25M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.40M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.40M bpd)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.00M bpd)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

U.S. oil production per day in 2026

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.00M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.00M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.10M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.10M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.25M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.25M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.40M bpd)

How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year? (At least 14.40M bpd)

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Discussion

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