This prediction market addresses the possibility of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung facing impeachment proceedings before the end of 2026. The market resolves based solely on whether the National Assembly of South Korea formally proposes and approves an impeachment motion against the president, regardless of the subsequent Constitutional Court review. This creates a political rather than judicial threshold for resolution. The topic has gained significant attention due to South Korea's history of presidential impeachments, the polarized political climate, and ongoing investigations into Lee Jae-myung's past conduct. Lee, who took office in May 2022 as the candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, has faced multiple legal challenges both before and during his presidency. His narrow electoral victory and the opposition-controlled National Assembly create conditions where impeachment discussions could emerge from political conflicts. Observers are monitoring whether opposition parties will pursue impeachment as a political strategy, particularly given precedent from the 2016-2017 impeachment of President Park Geun-hye. The market reflects uncertainty about political stability in South Korea during Lee's term.

Historical Context

South Korea has experienced two presidential impeachments in its democratic history, establishing important precedents. President Roh Moo-hyun was impeached by the National Assembly in 2004, but the Constitutional Court overturned the decision 63 days later, allowing him to return to office. This established that Assembly impeachment alone doesn't remove a president. More significantly, President Park Geun-hye was impeached in December 2016 following massive corruption protests involving millions of citizens. The Constitutional Court upheld her impeachment in March 2017, permanently removing her from office and leading to her imprisonment. These cases created a political template where opposition parties can use impeachment as a tool during divided government. The current political division echoes the 2016 situation, with a progressive president facing a conservative-controlled legislature. However, Lee Jae-myung's situation differs because investigations began before his presidency, unlike Park's case where scandals emerged during her term. The 2022 presidential election was decided by just 0.73 percentage points, reflecting the deep national polarization that makes political conflicts more likely to escalate to constitutional crises.

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