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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Name: What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
End: 2026-12-09T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.46M

Events

Markets

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What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Vol

$6.46M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.46M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.46M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?	Poly	54%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?	Poly	17%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?	Poly	14%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Poly	7%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?	Poly	5%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	Poly	4%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?	Poly	3%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?	Poly	2%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?	Poly	2%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$6.46M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s Dece

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 9, 2026 (147 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s Dece

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal fu"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.46M
* **Total Liquidity:** $264.6K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 24.41)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $409.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $68.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $49.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $514.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $452.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $157.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $36.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $188.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $1.35M
  DATA: [Yes: 7.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $2.39M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $212.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $131.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $128.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $126.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 9, 2026): Vol $239.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics