Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

CPI core year-over-year in Dec 2026

Total Volume

$1.72K

Events

Markets

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CPI core year-over-year in Dec 2026

Vol

$1.72K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.72K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.72K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.7%?

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Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.7%?	Kalshi	19%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.8%?	Kalshi	17%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.9%?	Kalshi	12%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.6%?	Kalshi	12%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.5%?	Kalshi	10%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.4%?	Kalshi	9%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.0%?	Kalshi	9%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.3%?	Kalshi	8%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.1%?	Kalshi	7%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.2%?	Kalshi	6%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.2%?	Kalshi	6%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.7%?	Kalshi	5%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.6%?	Kalshi	5%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.5%?	Kalshi	5%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.4%?	Kalshi	5%
Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.3%?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

19%

Top Probability

$1.72K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Dec 2026 If CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly X then the market resolves to Yes. “Core CPI” means the 12-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one decimal place. Subsequent revisions will not affect settlement. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CPI core year-over-year in Dec 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Dec 2026

If CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly X then the market resolves to Yes. “Core CPI” means the 12-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one decimal place. Subsequent revisions will not affect settlement. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 3.7%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Core CPI” means the 12-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one decimal place. Subsequent re"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.7%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.1%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $300
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.7%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $323
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $500
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

CPI core year-over-year in Dec 2026

Volume$1.72K

Markets16

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KALSHI

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.7%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.0¢No 81.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.7%?

If CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 2.7%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Core CPI” means the 12-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one decimal place. Subsequent re

KALSHI

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.8%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.8%?

If CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 2.8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Core CPI” means the 12-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one decimal place. Subsequent re

KALSHI

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.9%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.9%?

If CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 2.9%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Core CPI” means the 12-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one decimal place. Subsequent re

KALSHI

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.6%?

If CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 2.6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Core CPI” means the 12-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one decimal place. Subsequent re

KALSHI

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.5%?

If CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Core CPI” means the 12-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one decimal place. Subsequent re

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CPI core year-over-year in Dec 2026

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Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.7%?

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Events (1)

CPI core year-over-year in Dec 2026

Markets (16)

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.7%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.7%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.8%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.8%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.9%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.9%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.6%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.6%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.5%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.5%?

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Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.7%?

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CPI core year-over-year in Dec 2026

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.7%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.7%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.8%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.8%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.9%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.9%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.6%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.6%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.5%?

Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.5%?

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