This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 3?

Name: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 3?
End: 2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.03K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 3?

Vol

$4.03K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.03K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.03K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 3?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 3?	Poly	41%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 3?	Poly	38%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 3?	Poly	16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 3?	Poly	6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 3?	Poly	4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on May 3?	Poly	3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 3?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 3?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 3?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C or below on May 3?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 3?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

41%

Top Probability

$4.03K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 3?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.

To toggle 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $33.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.12)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C or below on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $655
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $151
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $132
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $182
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $181
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $715
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $373
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $500
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $247
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $175
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $761
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate