Climate prediction markets
554 climate market groups in the catalog. A group may contain related contracts with different settlement rules.
Market data updated . Prices are snapshots. The catalog refreshes every three hours.
PoliticsSportsCultureCryptoClimateEconomicsMentionsCompaniesFinancialsTechScienceHealthWorldClear categories
Showing 1-48 of 554 event groups
Ranked within each platform by reported lifetime volume. Polymarket reports dollars; Kalshi reports contracts.
PolymarketKalshiClimate
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
PM $8.13M · K 629.3K contractsWill there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Kalshi: Will there be more than 5000 measles cases in 2026?
Related contracts
PM Yes 98%Rules differK Yes 96.5%
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Kalshi: Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?
Related contracts
PM Yes 88.5%Rules differK Yes 83.5%
Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Kalshi: Will there be more than 7000 measles cases in 2026?
Related contracts
PM Yes 45.5%Rules differK Yes 55.5%
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
4 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Avengers: Doomsday: Cast
K 943.7K contractsWill Hugh Jackman perform as Wolverine in Avengers: Doomsday?Yes 92%
Will Ryan Reynolds perform as Deadpool in Avengers: Doomsday?Yes 90.5%
Will Benedict Cumberbatch perform as Doctor Strange in Avengers: Doomsday?Yes 89.5%
+16 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC
KalshiClimate and Weather
Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
K 502.2K contractsWill there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?Yes 4.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PM $6.62MWill SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes 64.5%
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes 35.8%
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes 0.4%
+9 moreNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiClimate and Weather
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
K 426.6K contractsWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes 67.5%
1 mktNext deadline Apr 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketClimate
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
PM $1.48MWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 46%
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 18.5%
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 17.5%
+1 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 17 - Oct 18)?
K 214.1K contractsWill it rain in West Palm Beach between Oct 17 and Oct 18, 2026?Yes 99.5%
Will it rain in Trenton between Oct 17 and Oct 18, 2026?Yes 99.5%
Will it rain in Seattle between Oct 17 and Oct 18, 2026?Yes 99.5%
+20 moreNext deadline Oct 21, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
New pandemic in 2026?
PM $1.24MNew pandemic in 2026?Yes 4.3%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiClimate and Weather
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
K 171.2K contractsWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season?Yes 6%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketClimate
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
PM $1.17MWill there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?Yes 51%
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Yes 31%
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Yes 7.1%
+3 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Where will it rain on Oct 18, 2026?
K 170.5K contractsWill it rain in Miami on Oct 18, 2026?Yes 99.5%
Will it rain in West Palm Beach on Oct 18, 2026?Yes 69.5%
Will it rain in Phoenix on Oct 18, 2026?Yes 31.5%
+32 moreNext deadline Oct 20, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
PM $833.2K10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Yes 0.9%
1 mktNext deadline Feb 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiClimate
How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
K 152.5K contractsWill there be more than 1 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?Yes 19.5%
Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?Yes 7.5%
Will there be more than 3 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?Yes 4.5%
+4 moreNext deadline Dec 2, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PM $350.6KWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Yes 8.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
K 146.7K contractsWhat will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? (Oil)Yes 62.5%
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? (Coal)Yes 13.5%
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? (Gas)Yes 6.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Dec 30, 2032 UTC
PolymarketClimate
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
PM $332.5K9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Yes 3.9%
1 mktNext deadline Feb 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiClimate and Weather
Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026?
K 135.7K contractsTotal snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? (Above 5 inches)Yes 97.5%
Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? (Above 10 inches)Yes 97.5%
Total snowfall in Big Sky in December 2026? (Above 15 inches)Yes 92.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
PolymarketClimate
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
PM $314.9K5kt meteor strike in 2026?Yes 19.5%
1 mktNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiClimate and Weather
When will Big Sky open for the 26/27 winter season?
K 128.6K contractsWill Big Sky open before Dec 13, 2026?Yes 98.5%
Will Big Sky open before Dec 6, 2026?Yes 98.5%
Will Big Sky open before Nov 29, 2026?Yes 93.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Nov 21, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Natural Disaster in 2026?
PM $250.2KNatural Disaster in 2026?Yes 11%
1 mktNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
What will Bernie say during his rally in Melbourne?
K 107.1K contractsWhat will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here rally in Melbourne originally scheduled for October 17, 2026? (Working Class)Yes 99.5%
What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here rally in Melbourne originally scheduled for October 17, 2026? (Tax Break)Yes 99.5%
What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here rally in Melbourne originally scheduled for October 17, 2026? (Social Security)Yes 99.5%
+24 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PM $247.2KNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?Yes 14.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiSports
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
K 106.4K contractsWill the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.5°C and 2.9°C?Yes 57.5%
Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be at least 3.0°C?Yes 35.5%
Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.0°C and 2.4°C?Yes 4%
+2 moreNext deadline Aug 15, 2027 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
PM $209.4KMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Yes 7%
1 mktNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiClimate
First Solar module volume sold in Q3
K 104.5K contractsWill First Solar Inc. report Above 3700 mw module volume sold in Q3 2026?Yes 95.5%
Will First Solar Inc. report Above 3800 mw module volume sold in Q3 2026?Yes 91.5%
Will First Solar Inc. report Above 3900 mw module volume sold in Q3 2026?Yes 86.5%
+15 moreNext deadline Feb 25, 2027 UTC
PolymarketClimate
When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
PM $150.5KWill the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?Yes 86.6%
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?Yes 12.5%
2 mktsNext deadline Nov 2, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
What will Bernie say during his rally in Tampa?
K 102.9K contractsWhat will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here rally in Tampa originally scheduled for October 17, 2026? (Working Class)Yes 99.5%
What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here rally in Tampa originally scheduled for October 17, 2026? (Trump (5+ times))Yes 99.5%
What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here rally in Tampa originally scheduled for October 17, 2026? (Tax Break)Yes 99.5%
+23 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
PM $147.8KMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?Yes 8.2%
1 mktNext deadline Apr 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Rain in Los Angeles in Oct 2026?
K 91.5K contractsRain in Los Angeles in Oct 2026? (Above 1 inch)Yes 67.5%
Rain in Los Angeles in Oct 2026? (Above 2 inches)Yes 10%
Rain in Los Angeles in Oct 2026? (Above 3 inches)Yes 4%
+4 moreNext deadline Nov 16, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PM $142.8KWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Yes 4.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiClimate
How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
K 85.2K contractsWill there be more than 5 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?Yes 4.5%
Will there be more than 4 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?Yes 4.5%
Will there be more than 6 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?Yes 2%
+6 moreNext deadline Dec 2, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?
PM $135.0KWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?Yes 93.2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?Yes 3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on October 18?Yes 2.9%
+8 more
KalshiClimate and Weather
Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026?
K 77.2K contractsWill Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026?Yes 2%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
PolymarketClimate
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
PM $131.1KWill the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?Yes 61.5%
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?Yes 39%
2 mktsNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiClimate and Weather
Snow in Philadelphia in Dec 2026?
K 74.0K contractsSnow in Philadelphia in Dec 2026? (Above 2 inches)Yes 34.5%
Snow in Philadelphia in Dec 2026? (Above 4 inches)Yes 24.5%
Snow in Philadelphia in Dec 2026? (Above 6 inches)Yes 14%
+3 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 18?
PM $126.9KWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18?Yes 99.7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C or below on October 18?Yes <0.1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on October 18?Yes <0.1%
+8 more
KalshiClimate and Weather
Northeast Cat 3+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026?
K 65.4K contractsNortheast Cat 3+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026?Yes 1.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
PolymarketClimate
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
PM $117.5K1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?Yes 1.6%
1 mktNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiClimate
US meets its climate goals?
K 63.5K contractsWill the US meet its climate goals? (By 2030)Yes 17.9%
Will the US meet its climate goals? (By 2025)Yes 12%
2 mktsNext deadline Dec 31, 2030 UTC
PolymarketClimate
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PM $104.3KWill the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?Yes 73.5%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?Yes 27.5%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?Yes 0.4%
+2 moreNext deadline Apr 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiClimate
What named storms will be hurricanes in the Atlantic this year?
K 62.4K contractsWill Omar be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?Yes 37.5%
Will Josephine be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?Yes 36%
Will Rene be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?Yes 30%
+14 moreNext deadline Dec 8, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 17?
PM $91.1KWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 17?Yes >99.9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on October 17?Yes <0.1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 17?Yes <0.1%
+8 more
KalshiClimate
Hurricane Hanna category?
K 61.2K contractsWill Hanna become a Category 5 hurricane?Yes 0.5%
Will Hanna become a Category 4 hurricane?Yes 0.5%
Will Hanna become a Category 3 hurricane?Yes 0.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Dec 2, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
PM $86.1KWill 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?Yes 92.5%
Will 1200 to 1249 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?Yes 4%
Will 1100 to 1149 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?Yes 1.8%
+5 moreNext deadline Jan 11, 2027 UTC
KalshiClimate
Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026?
K 52.3K contractsWill there be more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?Yes 28.5%
Will there be more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?Yes 6.5%
Will there be more than 14 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?Yes 3.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Dec 2, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
PM $73.4KWill there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?Yes 97.7%
Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?Yes 2.1%
Will there be 7+ hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?Yes <0.1%
3 mktsNext deadline Dec 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiClimate
Hurricane Nolo category?
K 51.9K contractsWill Nolo become a Category 4 hurricane?Yes 99.5%
Will Nolo become a Category 3 hurricane?Yes 99.5%
Will Nolo become a Category 2 hurricane?Yes 99.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Dec 2, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Highest temperature in Wellington on October 18?
PM $65.7KWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 18?Yes >99.9%
1 mkt